Caracas Chronicles
September 17, 2004

¿Y entonces?

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Carter Center Report on an Analysis of the Representativeness of the Second Audit Sample, and the Correlation between Petition Signers and t...
September 14, 2004

Things that make you go "hmmmm"...

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From today's Por Mi Madre, the daily political gossip page in TalCual, Final poll The final tracking poll for Consultores 21, car...

Magna Carta and the Subtle Art of Chavista Budgeting

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In Spanish the phrase "Carta Magna" is just a synonym for "constitution," so most Venezuelans probably don't know th...
September 13, 2004

Reminiscences of things present

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Reposted from El Informador de Barquisimeto A Militarist Vision by Pompeyo Marquez, Sept. 3, 2004 Translated by FT I have argued ...
September 10, 2004

The Elasticity of the Vote for Dummies

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Hausmann and Rigobon's argument about the non-randomness of the CNE cold-audit sample is based on something they've called the ...

The Zenith of the Egghead Brigade

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Thanks to Miguel Octavio for linking to this astonishing New York Times article on Benford's law. Dr. Theodore P. Hill asks his ma...
September 8, 2004

Pre-emptive Strike: Anticipating the Counterarguments to Hausmann and Rigobon

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I've been reading and re-reading Hausmann and Rigobon's piece to try to find holes in it. I'm finding it hard. The most obvi...
September 7, 2004

Hausmann and Rigobon: The incomprehensible, the evident and the damning

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Hausmann and Rigobon's paper on the evidence of fraud in the Recall Referendum makes three basic arguments. Instant reaction. 1.T...

Puro cuarto bate

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Ricardo Hausmann and Roberto Rigobon must be the two most respected and accomplished Venezuelan academics out there. You don't get te...
September 6, 2004

Alemo, serious planning, and where the hell do you get $60 billion?

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One of the most interesting articles I got to write when I lived in Venezuela grew from a meeting I had with five privileged white men who h...
September 3, 2004

Taking stock of the CD's collapse in international standing

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I'm not about to tell the CD to give up its fraud claims until they're satisfied they know what happened on August 15th. But as they...
September 2, 2004

The epistemology of fraud

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Say you witness an electoral event...your side loses, you're mad, you think there was fraud. What does it take to demonstrate that there...
September 1, 2004

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence

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Just to clarify my last few posts: am I sure there was no fraud on August 15th? No, of course not! How could I be? I am sure that there i...
August 31, 2004

Will somebody please give Enrique Mendoza a piano?

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I. Where's our William Hague? Where are our pianos? There's no particular reason for most Venezuelans to know who William Hague i...
August 30, 2004

Reflections of a suspicious comeflor

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by Gustavo Soto-Rosa I want to warn you, first off, that I'm a die hard comeflor, but at the same time I am very distrustful. Wh...

The political dynamics of crying fraud

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Whether or not there was fraud is one question. The political dynamics of the Fraud-claim are something else altogether. Who gains from ...

Return to Interactivity

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One week ago, I pulled the plug on the simple "comments" feature due to the turn the discussions had taken...straight into the gut...
August 29, 2004

Something very strange happened in Venezuela

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Readers of this blog know I've had a very hard time trying to piece together what happened during and after the August 15th referendum. ...
August 27, 2004

Who in the opposition has the moral authority to accept a Chavez victory?

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Teodoro Petkoff does. This is the Aug. 25th editorial in TalCual Sumate's statement, published yesterday, gives rise to an urgent...
August 26, 2004

Turning Japanese

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"When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." I show this sentence to Kan...
August 25, 2004

Why is this blog so quiet...

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Because, to cite Sumate's Aug. 23rd statement... Sumate has received hundreds of reports of fraud from citizens, civil associations ...
August 22, 2004

60-40?

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From my inbox... You know, when I first saw the CNE results, I assumed fraud. The weird hour, the huge spread, and the strange look on ...

The Carter Center Report on the last phase of the Venezuelan Recall Referendum

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The Carter Center has maintained an office and a director in Venezuela since September 2002, at the invitation of the Government of Venez...
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