December 8, 2006
Why did more people vote for Chavez than for Rosales?
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Quico says: Just to pick up on Alek's lucid postmortem, I'll add some thoughts of my own. I think the best way to go about dissect...
December 6, 2006
Podcast: "This is a political triumph amidst an electoral setback"
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Quico says: Well, Manuel Rosales kicked a huge amount of ass at his press conference yesterday (download part of the audio here.) The guy ...
Uruguayan Spoof
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Quico says: This one's too good not to post. Sorry to say it's not really translatable.
December 5, 2006
Alek's reaction...
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Quico says: Don't miss Alek Boyd's brief day-after statement.
Ojo Electoral's Preliminary Observations
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Quico says: Ojo Electoral, a Venezuelan elections monitoring NGO, posted observers at 337 randomly chosen voting tables (mesas de votación)...
December 4, 2006
Tibisay Lucena's Election
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Quico says: One refreshing thing about last night's election is that, for the first time in years, the National Electoral Council itsel...
Let the analyzing begin...
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Katy says: First off, the CNE website is already publishing detailed results by voting center. This is a welcome change, and we are finally ...
Bitter Medicine
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Quico says: Last night, the Recall Referendum season was finally closed. Rosales' concession marked the end of the long, barren, surrea...
December 3, 2006
Rosales concedes, I think
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Katy says: Manuel Rosales has just given the weirdest speech. It started out being very non-comittal one way or another, then he said he is...
The Rosales camp does message control
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Katy says: In light of today's events, where people linked to the campaign were echo to rumours giving victory to Rosales and declaring...
First Official Report: Chavez 61%, Rosales 38%
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Quico says: With 78.3% of actas tallied... Chavez: 61.4% (5,936,000 votes) Rosales: 38.4% (3,716,000 votes) A fucking debacle...
Real vote update: Chavez 61% - Rosales 39%
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Quico says: That's with well over half the actas tallied. Expect a first CNE bulletin soon.
Real votes: Chavez ahead by 20 to 24 points
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Quico says: Sources with access to CNE's tallying room say Chávez is ahead by at least 20 points, perhaps 24 points. This is not an exi...
Evans/McDonough Exit Poll: Chavez 58% - Rosales 40%
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Quico says: Or that's what Reuter's has, anyway.
teleSUR says Chavez 67%, Rosales 33% - Rosales campaign denies it
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Quico says: After months of government threats to shut down TV stations that publish elections results before http://www.blogger.com/img/gl...
Teodoro says...
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Quico says: Teodoro Petkoff, speaking for Rosales, says the day's voting went well, but there have been some problems after the end of ...
Glorified chisme: Chavez wins
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Quico says: Is it still gossip if Reuters is carrying it ? Consultores 30.11 coordinated an exit poll with Evans/McDonough Co., a U.S. pol...
Yowza: Serious Allegations from the Rosales Camp
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Quico says: Rosales campaign representatives are on TV right now saying that Plan Republica (military) officers have forced poll workers to...
The nerviest hour...
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Quico says: Yes, it's hair-pulling time. CNE's ban on publishing exit poll results has stuck better than anyone could've expect...
CNE Says...
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Quico says: The "blank votes" problem is coming about because people are using the voting machines wrong. You have to press the o...
Rosales says...
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Quico says: Manuel Rosales has just told the press that they've noted cases where people who vote for him get blank paper receipts. He ...
Today
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Quico says: Well, the big day is here. The tense wait, the hours and hours of increasingly nervy wondering...it's an election day tradi...
December 2, 2006
An update from pollsters
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Katy says: Inside sources confirm that the latest private DATOS poll puts Chavez's margin at 11 percentage points, down from 22 or so. S...
The dreaded predictions thread
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Quico says: For reasons I can't understand, the formatting goes all out of whack when I post a web poll. Please scroll down to register...
Chavismo as Eschatology
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JayDee says: I've seen Chavez speak in person twice in the last few weeks. Both times, he had his audiences eating out of his hand, wea...
December 1, 2006
Podcast: Leopoldo Lopez with eyes wide open...
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Quico says: Check out the the audio of parts of Leopoldo Lopez's press conference in Caracas yesterday. It's heartening to see th...
Opposition Election Monitoring Plan
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Quico says: Check out the opposition's fascist destabilization plan's instruction manual...damn coup-mongers.
November 30, 2006
Hot Audit Details
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Quico says: Clearly, a large part of the opposition is still seriously concerned that the government will commit numerical fraud. Unlike in ...
Podcast: Rosales as Bartlett
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Quico says: Well, here's the seriously disturbing audio of part of that Rosales town hall meeting. Rosales is, um, not a natural spea...
The provocation begins...
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Quico says: To understand the next few days, you need to understand one key fact: it's in the government's interest to bait the op...
Primer on Sunday's election...
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Quico says: Well, as usual, my hit-count is going berserk as Sunday's election draws near. Hello new people! Caracas Chronicles has be...
Final Survey Chart
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Quico says: Well, here's the final survey slide, with the latest Evans McDonough poll added: Click to enlarge As you can see, I've ...
November 29, 2006
Manuel Rosales, up close and personal
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Katy says: Last night, Globovisión held a town-hall meeting with opposition candidate Manuel Rosales. It was an interesting broadcast since...
Poll Wars Chronicles
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Quico says: Check out this impressive overview of the Poll Wars by Phil Gunson in the Miami Herald. Polls offer vastly different predictio...
Election tree update
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Quico says: Actually, there are eight logical possibilities: Care to hazard a guess how this will go? Which scenario do you think is most l...
Puzzling through the Dec. 4th Scenarios
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Quico says: The way I see it, the history of the next few years depends on what happens on Dec. 4th. Basically, there are 4 ways this could...
Scenario No. 2: Rosales goes AMLO
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Katy says: I'm going to follow up on Quico's post and work through the second of the four scenarios: the possibility that opposition...
November 28, 2006
Compare and Contrast: Blue Venezuela vs. Red Venezuela
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Quico says: Yesterday I posted on the underlying issue at stake in this election: a tricolor Venezuela, or a monochrome red one? Two differ...
Amarillita, Azulita y Rojita...
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Quico says: If you ask me, the best part of Rosales' campaign was the way he set up the contrast between his "Tricolor Avalanche...
November 27, 2006
Rosales and this campaign season: The Good, the bad and the ugly
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Katy says: After a brief trip due to work and family obligations, I am back at my desk full-throttle for this exciting election week. This i...
Updated Survey Chart
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Quico says: Well, I added two more polls to the Recent Surveys chart; one by Ipsos/AP and a second by Zogby/U. Miami. Again, I leave out su...
November 26, 2006
Atmospherics of an anti-climax
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JayDee says: The big day draws ever closer, though you would never know it walking around Caracas. Sure, there are rallies and marches ever...
November 23, 2006
The number, not the trend
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Quico says: OK, enough with the phone-based tracking polls. What are real field surveys saying? Below is a selection of recently published ...
November 21, 2006
Once more, with gusto...
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Quico says: Sigh. Nothing takes the sheen off of a juicy leak quite like seeing the leakee interviewed at length the next day on ND. In t...
November 20, 2006
Blessed are the leakers...
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...for they bring us the juicy polling reports that don't show up in the newspapers. Quico says: Well, a pajarito put a copy of Hinter...
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