The View from Your Window: Prior Lake

Prior Lake, Minnesota - 1:10 p.m.

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Drooling on the lens of his Sincerity-cam

Juan Cristóbal says: - The quote of the day comes from the Venice love-fest between Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez and Oliver Stone:

"I used the real man," Stone said. "I hope you realize how dynamic he is in the movie. What I like about the film is you see how sincere he is on camera. You don't see a guy who is a phony. He's not a dictator."

Stone's advisors for the film? Major PSFs Tariq Ali and Mark Weisbrot. Enough said.

Mopping up the airwaves

Quico says: Chávez henchman Diosdado Cabello's decision to shut down another 29 radio stations (but which ones?) sounds very much like a mopping up operation. Because, between the first set of closures last month and the Heavy Duty self-censorship now evident on Venezuelan radio, most of the heavy lifting has already been accomplished. Just a few insufficiently cowed private stations remain and, as we can now see, not for much longer.

Actually, "mopping up" is pretty much the order of the day here. Because instituting a dictatorship, in practice, is all about closing down the possibility of mounting a serious challenge to the government by monopolizing the institutional and social spaces you need to organize people politically. By and large, the work of instituting a dictatorship in Venezuela has been accomplished. At this point, they're just tidying up the loose ends.

The somber tone in yesterday's anti-Chávez march - long gone are the days of oppo bailoterapias - bears out that even the most hardened of escuálidos know how bad the odds against us are by
now.

The View from Your Window: Providence

Providence, Rhode Island - 12:10 p.m.

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The Feisbukisation of Protest

Quico says: Time was when strongmen could put a stranglehold on society's capacity to organize itself against them just by setting up a censorship board and throwing a few dozen journos in jail.

But the world has changed, and citizens these days have options. Clamp down on the traditional mass media, and folks have alternatives beyond the old hand-cranked mimeograph, samizdat model. Who needs a mimeograph when you have Facebook!?

And so, the big shindig is today at noon, local time, in three dozen cities around the world. Look for your meeting place here.

Anybody care to hazard a guess as to the level of violence at the Venezuelan marches?

Maintaining Radio Silence

Quico says: I hadn't wanted to mention it, but I guess this post blows my cover. I'm in Caracas again, working on a couple of projects. When I'm in town, I always spend a lot of time listening to the radio, catching up with the one bit of the Venezuelan public sphere I really don't have access to abroad. The experience this time has shaken me.

In a word, it worked. Shutting down those 34 dissident stations two months ago has brought an arctic freeze over free expression on the radio. You can spend an evening in Caracas going up and down the dial and never once hear any critical political content at all. It's staggering.To a shocking degree, critical content about the government is just not available on the radio anymore.

Now, as always, most of what's broadcast is music. There's still a decent amount of talk radio, though. On the private stations, it consists of a mix of baseball games, evangelicals urging you to pray hard to the holy spirit, teenie-boppers talking about teenie-bopper stuff, and fluffy health and lifestyle shows about the benefits of macrobiotic shakes or multiple orgasms. On the state-owned stations and the misnamed "community" broadcasters ("parastatal" is more like it), all you get are ranting chavistas, all day, every day.

You sporadically come across an extreeeeemely vanilla "finance" or "economics" show on a private station that, with some bravado, and stuck in between pieces lauding Empreven and touting the business opportunities created by Alba, might obliquely note that allowing real currency appreciation might have something to do with deincentivating local industry.

When they cut to commercial, half the advertising is for Cantv.

As one of my contacts here noted, the key to understanding the current trend towards militant self-censorship isn't just the 34 radio stations the government shut down: it's the none-too-subtle hint Conatel chief Diosdado Cabello gave when he said his agency is actively looking into 220 other radio stations' paperwork as well.

Thing is, Conatel never published the actual list. Diosdado never specified which stations he was looking into. So if you're a radio station manager, you have no way of knowing if you're on the list or not. Elementary caution dictates that you have to assume that you are. So, effectively, the sword of Damocles is hanging over the lot of them. Under those circumstances, nobody's willing to take a chance.

It may be that I'm listening at the wrong times. Apparently Marta Colomina is still ranting away on UnionRadio and we're just on different schedules. But the contrast with the way radio was just three months ago is staggering. More than once this trip I've devoted a solid 2 or 3 hours to parading up and down the radio dial checking out what's on and heard NOTHING you could consider critical broadcasting. Nothing at all. Nothing.

I have seen the face of communicational hegemony. And it's ugly.

The View from Your Window: Greenwich

Greenwich, Connecticut - 3:01 p.m.

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A contrast in leadership

Juan Cristóbal says: - In the face of the chavista onslaught on civil liberties, it would be nice if the opposition showed some leadership, a path that may just get us out of this mess.

The recipe according to Antonio Ledezma is to hit the streets and go to the OAS. The recipe according to Leopoldo López is to organize communities and stage primaries to select unity opposition candidates, with the ultimate goal of taking back Congress next year.

I don't know about you, but to me it's clear only one of these guys has an actual plan. And you can't defeat a military regime like Chávez’s if you don't have a plan.

The View from Your Window: Buenos Aires

Buenos Aires, Argentina - 1:40 p.m.

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Richard Blanco's Death Sentence

Quico says: It's hard to write something cheerful about Venezuela these days. The tenor, the saña, of the chavista onslaught on civil liberties is now so aggressive it's hard to know what to do with the huge well of despair that comes over you when you contemplate it.

The new rules of the game are clear: every time there is a protest there will be violence. Chavista thug squads like the one in San Cristobal will make sure of that. And every time there is violence at a protest, the opposition will be blamed for it, and its leaders will be tried. Luisa Ortega Diaz vows to charge them with "civil rebellion" - an offense that could justify jail terms measured in decades.

Over 2000 Venezuelans have already been charged with criminal offenses related to protests so far in the Chávez era. The number looks set to rise quickly.

Protesting is, in effect, banned. The constitution's civil rights guarantees are, in effect, suspended.

It's not, of course, the first time Venezuela has had a regime that imprisons large numbers of people for political reasons. But it is the first time a repressive government refuses to grant any differential treatment to its political prisoners, as opposed to run-of-the-mill choros.

Under Pérez Jiménez, political prisons were, at least implicitly, recognized as such: segregated from common criminals and housed together in political jails. Even Gómez, whose political prisons were famously brutal, didn't (as a rule) mix in political prisoners with street thugs.

Rómulo Betancourt and Raúl Leoni - whose governments were locked in a no-kidding shooting war with guerrillas openly committed to the violent overthrow of the democratic regime - recognized that political prisoners had to be afforded certain guarantees while detained.

Even Carlos Andrés Pérez, when he jailed the violent coupster who trampled on his vow to uphold the constitution and caused the deaths of dozens of people, not to mention attempted to kill him, nonetheless put Chávez in a wing of Yare Prison devoted only to people incarcerated for politically motivated offenses.

El Comandante apparently forgot all about that. Richard Blanco - the opposition municipal official in Caracas whose job involved overseeing public order - has been thrown, on highly dubious grounds, in the same jail Chávez spent a couple of years in. But Blanco is not being segregated from the run-of-the-mill criminals who've made Yare Prison a by-word for violence and brutality. Just tossed in to fend for himself, together with the 11 other municipal employees similarly charged for protesting and denied bail pending trial.

Putting a near-cop like Blanco in a jail like that amounts to a death sentence. Chávez knows it. Luisa Ortega Diaz knows it. Everybody knows it.

Update: A historically minded reader tells me at least some political prisoners in the Gómez era were tossed in with common criminals. I guess that means we've reached the level of democratic development we had then.

The View from Your Window: Bogotá

Bogotá, Colombia - 11:58 a.m.

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The Reason Cesar Pérez Vivas is Going to Jail

Quico says: Looking at this clip, it's hard not to think of the old Superman comics where the Man of Steel (Sidorman?) got stuck in Bizarroworld - the cube-shaped planet where everything is the opposite of the way it is on earth. Here's some amateur video taken of the reception that the basically peaceful march organized by Pérez Vivas got in San Cristobal last week:



Just so it's clear: Táchira State Governor Cesar Pérez Vivas calls a march to protest the new Education Law. The march is peaceful, up until it's basically ambushed by chavista activists throwing rocks and bottles from a rooftop. We have the videotape to prove it. And the violent fascist who has to get tried over it is...Cesar Pérez Vivas.

The View from Your Window: La Uvita

La Uvita, Costa Rica - 12:03

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The Face of Chavismo Today

Quico says: More than anything or anyone else in Venezuela today, it's Luisa Ortega Díaz that scares me. There's something spontaneous, heartfelt, deeply honest about the Prosecutor General's commitment to authoritarianism that creeps me out to the core.

In this startling communiqué issued today, Ortega Diaz puts in a strong audition for the role of Postergirl for late-stage chavismo. Unembarrassed by her sneering contempt for dissent, uninterested in maintaining a minimal façade of democratic tolerance, suffused with aggression against anyone who questions her ideological certainties and ideologically committed to using state power to crush them, to listen to Luisa Ortega Diaz is to verify the far outer reaches to which the boundaries of acceptable discourse have been pushed in Venezuelan officialdom.

It's funny to think back now on how we used to loathe the old Fiscal General, Isaías Rodríguez. Time was when we figured we couldn't do any worse than him for a Fiscal. With the benefit of hindsight, though, we can see that however much of a tool Isaías might have been - and, make no mistake about it, he was a monumental tool - the guy's lethargy ended up shielding us. The sheer bureaucratic torpor Isaías exhuded from every pore in his greasy little body ended up blunting the danger he presented to our freedom. Too stupid to inflict much damage, too unimaginative to grasp the power of his office and the possibilities it afforded him, installing Isaías in the Fiscalía ended up being more about guaranteeing impunity to corrupt chavistas than about dismantling the remaining spaces for dissent in Venezuelan society.

Luisa Ortega Diaz is something else altogether. She doesn't just have the extremist ideology, she also has the energy, the clarity of vision and the sense of her own power to become a leading player in the drive to entrench a chavista dictatorship.

Because, lets be clear, her office is powerful: much more powerful than analogous offices in most other countries. It has a complete monopoly on deciding which criminal cases get tried and which don't. With no regional-level prosecutions, no private prosecutions allowed and no escape valves in things like Special Council or Independent Council statutes, the Fiscal General is the ultimate judicial bottle-neck, with total discretion to decide who gets a criminal trial and who doesn't.

That's the power Luisa Ortega Diaz has. And there really isn't any ambivalence to her views: protesting against the government is attempting to undermine the stability of the state, and will be prosecuted. When you considered the parallel stranglehold chavismo has over the courts, there's no ambiguity left at all. Venezuela is quickly becoming a place where disagreeing with the government in public is an offense punishable with jail time. And Luisa Ortega Diaz has taken on her task of ensuring that goal is reached with simply terrifying glee.

The View from Your Window: Berlin

Berlin, Germany - 4:20 p.m.

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Ding Dong, Seniat Calling

Quico says: Seniat has just announced they are shutting down Avon Cosmetics de Venezuela for 72 hours for not filling out their VAT forms properly. Headquarters, one factory, and 11 commercial offices are affected.

Which, I think, gives you a sense for just how unhinged from real Venezuelans' values the government's gotten. I mean, can they really survive the backlash once the better half of the country goes all lipstickless and hyper-cuaimatized? Don't these people have daughters? And what's next...shutting down the Blackberry network for backtaxes?! Or - gulp - going after the brewers?

That, right there, is the final frontier. When you see the government shutting down the beer-makers you know it's the final straw.

The View from Your Window: Washington

Washington, DC - 5:35 p.m.

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You Can't Quit, You're Fired!

Quico says: Leopoldo López just got kicked out of UNT. Kicked out. Of UNT. Swirl that around in your brain for a bit. It's really crazy.

I don't know the exact circumstances that led up to this. I would guess this was a pre-emptive expulsion, meant to take the sting out of his imminent storming out. One way or another, one thing's clear: the guy's earning himself a bit of a reputation as, erm, not a team player. Prima donnaish and caudillesque in a deep way only superficially papered over by the technocratic shtick, LL is quickly earning, on the right, the moniker Guillermo García Ponce kept for so long on the left: General de División.

Note: Latest reports are that this story is not true. I'm as confused as you.

The View from Your Window: San Fernando

San Fernando de Apure, Venezuela - 12:38 p.m.

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Amsterdam on Nelson on A11 on Huffo

Thanks to everyone for wedding wishes. I declare this break over.

Quico says: The April 11th crucible will not be forgotten. Check out Robert Amsterdam's bit on Brian Nelson's book on April 11th over on the Huffington Post. It, and the accompanying interview, should be read widely.

Seven years on, the controversy surrounding the coup simply will not be put to sleep, because how you interpret the coup is how you interpret Chávez:

"If you believe that the opposition initiated the violence; that they placed gunmen at the head of the march and wanted to cause deaths to spark a coup, then Hugo Chávez is a victim," wrote Nelson in his email to me. "But if you believe that the Chávez government initiated the violence; that the National Guard troops and loyalists opened fire on the march to keep it from surrounding the palace, then Hugo Chávez is not the victim, he is the aggressor. (...) If this is what you believe, then Hugo Chávez has lost his legitimacy and he should, at the very least, be placed on trial."

No wonder chavismo is so keen to debunk his research.

The View from Your Window: Caracas

Los Palos Grandes, Caracas, Venezuela - 9:37 a.m.

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Which I guess makes it official...

Quico says: ...cuz, as the good book says, what Facebook has united, may no man tear asunder.

Just (about to get) married

Juan Cristóbal says: It's true. On Saturday, a week from tomorrow, Quico will marry his long-time sweetheart.

At the moment, Quico's life is a sprawling chaos of juggling inlaws, caterers, photographers, organists, guests and guests and more guests ... a total circus. And I won't be able to pick up the slack blogging because I'm driving out there with Katy and the girls to join the circus.

So this blog is going to be semi-dormant for the next couple of weeks while the nuptial parade rolls in and out of town. I'm sure you'll understand. We'll try to post once in a while, and we have a queue of Views from Your Window posts lined up, but don't expect much.

For now, to help Quico and his bride Kanako (the reason he's been studying Japanese all these years) adjust to married life, how about we celebrate them with the time-honored tradition of ... free, unsolicited marital advice!

The View from Your Window: Dublin

Dublin, Ireland - 6:23 p.m.

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Our (non)deliberative and (non)participatory (non)democracy

Juan Cristóbal says: - Quico and I are both swamped today, but we didn't want to the day to pass without highlighting that Chávez's National Assembly passed a highly controversial Education Law last night. We haven't had the chance to read the law carefully yet, but judging from previous drafts, there are serious issues with provisions regarding State interference in private education and limits on the ability of private providers to raise funds.

As if that weren't enough, it is believed the law also sneaks in provisions that seriously limit freedom of expression.

Disagree? Don't take my word for it, take the law's. Article 50 of the Draft Education law says,

Those who lead the media have the obligation to cooperate in the education of the population and must adjust their programming to achieve the objectives set out in the Constitution and in the present law. The publication and communication, in printed format or in other forms of mass communication, of printed material that terrorizes children, incites hatred, aggressiveness, lack of discipline, deforms the language and attacks the healthy values of the Venezuelan people, their morality and their good customs and the mental and physical health of the population, is strictly forbidden. When faced with an infraction, the governing bodies in the field of education will request the immediate suspension of the corresponding activities or publications, without precluding the possibility of further sanctions being applied based on Venezuela's laws.

As if this wasn't enough, they passed another law last night, this one regulating (eliminating?) private property in urban areas.

What are your thoughts about these laws? What do you know about them? Let the games begin.

The View from Your Window: Davie

Davie, FL - 16:08

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Quico hits AM Radio

Juan Cristóbal says: - Quico will hit the conservative AM radiowaves tomorrow morning to talk about Chávez. Tomorrow (at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time / 8:00 a.m. in Caracas,) tune in to Bill Bennett's radio show, guest hosted by former US Senator Rick Santorum. Check here for a live feed, here for schedules in your area.

Update: Quico was stood up! Our apologies.

Chavismo's Idea of Press Freedom

Quico says: This is what you get for passing out flyers supporting press freedom in Venezuela today. And I don't mean "today" metaphorically: this photo was literally taken today.

Amid shouts of "these streets belong to the people", a group of chavista thugs rounded on a group of Cadena Capriles journos on Avenida Urdaneta, in downtown Caracas. A dozen of them were injured.

And just think: most of the journos passing out those flyers work for the Chávez-friendly Ultimas Noticias. Think what an El Nacional journo would get for a similar "offense".

Ceci N'est Pas Une Innondation

Quico says: Caracas's unelected mayor-cum-chavista-viceroy, Jacqueline Faría, went all fascio on the media's coverage of the heavy rains that caused commuting chaos yesterday.

Taking the chance to - and you can't make this stuff up - politicize the weather, she started by needling the opposition, noting that only oppo run parts of the city seemed to be having any problems. But then, she took that extra-step from excessively thin-skinned politician to enforcer of authoritarianism by warning that the media's coverage of the flash floods was misinforming the public and creating a "situation of alarm"...leaving the rest up to each journalist's imagination.

In the media environment Chavismo is creating, such a "warning" from someone in a position like Faría's is indistinguishable from censorship. With the government flirting with laws that would jail journalists for publishing news that set off "panic", "alter public order" or commit any of another half dozen vaguely defined offenses, a statement like Faría's becomes something far more pernicious than a bit of freelance media criticism and comes right up to the edge of prior restraint.

After all, it's chavistas who will decide what "setting off panic" means in practice and a very highly placed one has just told you that the news you've just published comes perilously close to that.

Of course, you could take your chances: keep publishing the same story and look forward to trying to convince a provisional judge in a chavista court who can lose his job on the spot if he bucks orders from his higher-ups on the Supreme Tribunal that "causing alarm" is not the same thing as "setting off panic." Would you want to find yourself in that position?

And that, in a nutshell, is freedom of speech, Chávez style. It rains. Streets flood. You go on the air saying it's raining and streets are flooding. Some apparatchik feels threatened by your report. She silences you. Simple as that.

No need for a censorship board, for a highly visible regime...just threats vague enough but credible enough to make it exceedingly foolhardy on your part to keep reporting news the government doesn't want reported. It's the perfect censorship regime.

The View from Your Window: Bogotá

Bogotá, Colombia - 2:05 p.m.

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What I Really Think About that Golf Story

Quico says: Since so many of you seem - for some baffling reason - to care, I wrote up what I really think about that Chávez-hates-golf story in a blog post over at TNR.

(And yes, I realize this new rant is pretty much in direct contradiction with what I wrote this morning. My weak-ass defense? Different audiences!)

Three Farewell Parties in a Week

Quico says: The other ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) puts a skewer through the revolution. Worth watching as much for the lovely cinematography as for the (sometimes screwy) content.

Memo to ABC: "chavistas" does not mean "little chavezes"...now go write it on the board a hundred times:

The View from Your Window: Rochester

Rochester, NY - 12:30

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Chávez Gets One Right

Quico says: It's the law of averages...you can't talk in public as much as Chávez does without eventually getting at least one thing right.

Count me in, golf should be banned...

The View from Your Window: Halle

Halle, Flanders, Belgium: 8:10 a.m.

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Caracas Chronicles 2.0: Where We Are

Quico says: As many of you know, we've been working hard behind the scenes on a complete overhaul of this blog, starting with a new look, a new content management system, and a much improve comments system.

Once all of that is in place, the goal is to launch a new, Spanish version of Caracas Chronicles, hoping to create a platform for serious political debate the likes of which just don't exist in Venezuela at the moment.

For me, the ultimate goal is to change the way Venezuelans relate to each other politically on the internet, by creating a vibrant, substantive reader forum that can sustain serious, impassioned debate that doesn't get drowned out by the insane ramblings and hyperpolarized bullshit that dominates comments in all existing Venezuelan news sites.

What's more, we want to do that without actually having to delete any comments. And the way you square that circle, we think, is by giving you, the readers, the ability to enforce your own standards, giving extra visibility to comments that advance discussion substantively while lowering the visibility of those comments that tend to derail debate (but without deleting them.) We want to build a site that rewards those who make a substantive contribution to the online community, giving them more weight over the way the site is managed. Ultimately, we want the kinds of debates that happen on Caracas Chronicles at its best to be available in Spanish.

After much looking, we've concluded that the software you'd need to sustain such a commenting shangri-la just doesn't exist yet. So we're commissioning our own.

The new comments software will encourage you to take ownership of the online community you participate in, effectively crowdsourcing the task of moderating comments.

In effect, we're going to ask you to rate each others' comments, not just on whether you agree with them or not - which is what these ratings typically end up reflecting - but, crucially, on whether the comment advances debate and understanding even if you disagree with it. This is a big ask, I know, but until we get into the habit of mind of separating those two issues from one another, Venezuela's political web forums are going to remain stuck in the Noticias24esque rut they've been in so long.

The new site should be up and running by October, with the Spanish counterpart following suit quite soon afterwards. I have no doubt that the initial period will be somewhat chaotic - there'll be a lot of trial and error involved. I'm also sure we need to step up our game in terms of using the internet in these kinds of ways, and since no one else is doing it, we might as well give it a try.

The View from Your Window: Houston

Houston, Texas - 11:58 a.m.

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The View from Your Window: Mérida

Mérida, Venezuela - 3:20 p.m.

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The View from Your Window: Washington

Washington, DC - 12:39 p.m.

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Ending the Tsunami of Paja on Gringos in Colombia

Quico says: First things first: under current geostrategic realities, the notion that the US could mount an invasion of Venezuela (or Ecuador) from Colombia is nuts. Bonkers. Plain crazy.

Nobody with a passing acquaintance of the Obama administration's foreign policy, or the US's budgetary constraints, military capabilities, political realities or strategic interests could take such an idea seriously. There's so much that's wrongheaded and bizarre about the claim, there's very little point in even going through all the various reasons why it's simply not believable.

We need to be perfectly up-front about that as we dissect Hugo Chávez's claim that the recent US Military Agreement with Colombia (which does not open US military bases there and does not lead to a sharp spike in the presence of US military personnel there) is some kind of prelude to a US invasion of Venezuela.

Once we discard the pretext, I can think of two possible reasons why Chávez might react quite as strongly as he has to a stepped up US military presence in Colombia. It's one of two things. Either,

A- He's planning to do something drastic that fundamentally alters the US geostrategic calculus in the Andean region.

or

B- The talk of invasions and cross-border wars is a rhetorical smokescreen: really, he's trying to help his allies in the Colombian conflict (hint: not the government.)

The first possibility, while not quite impossible, strikes me as far-fetched. There is only one action Chávez could undertake that would alter the US geostrategic calculus sufficiently to make an invasion exit the realm of straight-out science fiction and enter that of strategic possibility: making a serious attempt to produce nuclear weapons.

This is not impossible, and certainly Venezuela's otherwise-difficult-to-fathom alliance with the Ahmadinejad/Khamenei regime in Tehran should give us pause. Nonetheless, the technical barriers involved are massive, and the risks seem too big for anyone to face.

I think the much more likely scenario, therefore, is B-: the latest hissy fit about a gringo invasion is cover for an ulterior motive.

Lets review the bidding, here:

1. Chávez's alliance with FARC is an open secret.
2. Chávez arms FARC.
3. Chávez allows FARC to use Venezuela as its rearguard.
4. High ranking chavista officials aid FARC's narcotics operations.

This we all pretty much know, and the US and Colombian intelligence services know for sure....from that, it's no stretch to conclude that Chávez's end-game vis-à-vis the Colombian conflict, his ultimate goal there, is for FARC to win the war and establish a friendly government in Bogotá.

That's - to put it mildly - an unrealistic aim. But within the bubble of hyperleftist lunacy Chávez has created around himself in Miraflores, the possibility of FARC eventually winning the war in Colombia and toppling the democratically elected government has obviously not been discarded. Indeed, it sure looks like this is Chávez's end-game for Colombia. And it's because that's Chávez's ultimate goal there that preventing any escalation of US involvement there is a priority.

In raising a stink about the recent military deal, Chávez is simply going to bat for an ally. Not at all unlike what he's tried to do for Zelaya in Honduras. His ally is threatened, so Hugo tries to use the power resources at his disposal to help out. No more, no less.

But, from the Colombian point of view, should the fact that your neighbors are allied with the narcoterrorists on your soil count as a reason to back down? I really don't see it.

The View from Your Window

Washington, DC: 11:30 a.m.

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Uribe and Obama should scrap their deal

Juan Cristóbal says: - As you probably know, the recent controversy surrounding Venezuela and Colombia has to do with an agreement allowing the US Armed Forces to use 7 military bases inside Colombian territory. The deal has caused a diplomatic firestorm. The combination of hot air coming from Miraflores and the carbon footprint from Uribe's seven-countries-in-five-days tour will probably cause significant chunks of the polar ice caps to disappear. More significantly, Chávez’s threats to cut off all trade with Colombia should be taken seriously. The question begging to be asked is whether it's all worth it.

I think it isn't.

Breaking commercial ties with Colombia would be terrible for Venezuelans. Not only would the price of everything from cars to blumers increase by having to find other, more costly partners, but the distance and the lack of established distribution chains means these hikes would likely be accompanied by significant shortages. Chávez’s further threats to respond by going shopping in Moscow for even more military hardware would only add to Venezuelans' misery.

Let's face it, there is nothing Venezuelans gain from this policy and, quite frankly, little Colombians gain. Many commentators, from Andres Oppenheimer to National Security Adviser Jim Jones, have said the agreement is no big deal and would not add to the number of troops already in Colombia. If that's the case, why push for it then?

Colombia also has a lot to lose. Uribe is being forced to explain domestic policy to friendly neighbors, and usually balanced Presidents such as Uruguay's Tabaré Vásquez have come out unconvinced his idea is a good one. More importantly, Uribe's move would embolden the more disagreeable sectors of Colombia's opposition. Just today we learn Chávez is holding high-level meetings with Colombia's disgraced former President Samper, and tomorrow he meets the Colombian opposition. And besides, it's not like Uribe owes the US many favors after the Democrats in Congress have essentially shelved the Colombia-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

This is a bad move for the US as well. Whatever extra mobility they gain by placing themselves in Colombia's bases is offset by the credibility they lose in a region that has shown much goodwill toward American policy in the last few months. Is it really worth it to anger its allies in order to appease its military establishment who persist in fighting a misguided war on drugs that, frankly, is not showing much in the way of results? Can't they simply do whatever they were meant to do with this agreement, only do it using some other, more informal arrangements, without so much pomp?

This deal is bad for Uribe, bad for the US, bad for the US's image in the region, and most of all, bad for Venezuelans. Let's see, that's four bads, no goods.

The agreement gives Chávez the perfect excuse to rally around the flag and ignore the important domestic issues he should be paying attention to. Uribe and Obama should scrap it.

The View from Your Window

Taunus, Germany: 7:18 p.m.

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The Other Media Crisis

Quico says: Everyone knows that the Big Crisis affecting Venezuelan journalism is that the news business just doesn't gel with a government congenitally allergic to criticism. Chavismo now openly advocates substituting a free and vibrant press with a subservient, quasi-statist "community media". But the open intimidation and harassment the private media faces is only one aspect of the problem, and perhaps not even the biggest one. The biggest one is that, today, essentially every news-gathering organization in the country - except for one - is losing money.

Circulation figures for major newspapers are a tightly held secret in Venezuela. Reliable sources tell me that El Nacional, for instance, is now circulating fewer than 20,000 copies every weekday. Yes, you read that right. El Universal I don't know about, but is unlikely to be far above that.

In fact, the only Venezuelan newspaper that is financially viable these days is Ultimas Noticias, which rides its tabloid sensibility to a respectable (yet far from awesome) circulation tally in the low-to-mid six-figures on weekdays. That allows them to break even while everybody else is losing money.

Tal Cual? A money hole. Globovisión? A charity case. Notitarde? Beyond hopeless. Every news organization in the country except for Ultimas Noticias loses money.

In effect, this means that organizations lacking a powerful financial backer - like Tal Cual - operate under insanely tight constraints. Our newspapers are precarious operations run on a shoestring by badly underpaid staff perennially one fine away from going under.

Meanwhile organizations enjoying the support of powerful, deep pocketed backers can keep operating, not as commercial enterprises but rather as personal projects. El Nacional exists purely because Miguel Henrique Otero subscribes to the kamikaze school of financial management, no other reason. El Universal survives because Andrés Mata thinks poking Chávez in the eye is good fun. If these products were run as by purely commercial standards, they would've closed years ago. And however outsized their martyr complexes might be, even the Zuloagas and Oteros of this world will run out of money eventually.

Except, of course, if your backer has the largest oil reserves in the Western hemisphere. One of the scary things of this phenomenon is that soon we may face a reality where the only newspapers that survive are Ultimas Noticias and Chavez-propaganda pieces such as Diario Vea, supported by the inexhaustible budget for government advertisement and its barely-hidden policy of rewarding favorable editorials.

While tempting to blame this, too, on Chávez, the financial crisis afflicting our newspapers is merely the Venezuelan expression of a worldwide phenomenon. Circulation is falling everywhere. Advertisers who can go on Craig's List for free have no reason to hand over their hard earned cash to a newsroom. Eyeballs are moving off the page and onto the web, and this would be happening even if Luisa Ortega Diaz had never been born.

Underlying global trends in media consumption patterns could be doing as much to doom Venezuela's traditional news organization as Chávez is. And the Venezuelan media - barely able to survive in the incredibly hostile atmosphere chavismo creates - just don't seem to have a plan to deal with it at all.

To be fair, they're not alone. The SF Chronicle and the Seattle Post-Intelligencer couldn't crack that nut either. When even Conde Nast is closing magazines and firing staff, it's clear that the media can run, but they can't hide.

Over the next few years, people worldwide are going to have to get used to a radical shift in the way news gathering is financed and organized, and a lot of commentators are talking in horrified terms about a kind of "gap": a period after the legacy-model is dead and buried but before anything rises up to replace it.

How that shakes out, I don't know. I do know that, if we're to survive the twin onslaughts of chavismo and the Other Crisis, "Citizen Journalism" is going to have to kick it up a notch and complete the transition from meaningless catchphrase to working model of news gathering in a big hurry.

Juan Cristóbal and I will do our part. Will you?

Lingering questions from Chávez’s press conference

Juan Cristóbal says: - Hugo Chávez gave an off-limits-to-the-locals press conference today. In it, he went in depth about the AT-4 missile launchers belonging to the Venezuelan Armed Forces and found in the hands of the FARC.

He gave a few explanations. What follows are his explanations as I understand them, and the questions that I'm still left wondering about.

I obviously wasn't there, and it's entirely possible these questions were answered, so if you have more insight or if you saw the ghastly thing, please share your info.

Chávez says: "The rocket launchers were stolen in 1995."
I ask: If that's the case, why didn't you tell the Colombians two months ago when you were alerted of their finding? Why did you not share this information with the Swedish government? And why wasn't the Colombian government aware these weapons had been stolen? Are the Venezuelan Armed Forces in such a state of disarray that it takes more than two months and a diplomatic incident with two countries to simply locate the precise fate of military weaponry? Who is going to take the blame for this delay?

Chávez says: "The rocket launchers had already been used and were useless."
I ask: Did the FARC not know this? Why would they be careful to stowe these weapons in remote parts of the jungle if they were basically useless military junk? How do you know they had been used already? And if that is the case, why is the Colombian government concerned? Are you suggesting the Colombian government doesn't know the rocket launchers were useless/had been used? Or are you suggesting they are feigning outrage over nothing?

Chávez says: "Serial numbers can be easily manipulated."
I ask: So, are you saying the serial numbers were manipulated in this case? If so, what are the real serial numbers of the rocket launchers? And if so, how do you know the ones Uribe found were the ones stolen in Cararabo? Are you saying the Swedish government is looking for an explanation based on fake serial numbers? And if they can be easily manipulated, who are you claiming manipulated them? Have you communicated all of this to the Swedish government? Have they accepted your explanation?

I'm just wonderin' ...

The View from Your Window

New York, NY: 1:35 p.m.

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The View from Your Window

Heidelberg, Germany: 3:23 p.m.

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Prominent chavista pans new Media Law

Juan Cristóbal says: - Former Constitutional Assembly member and former Ambassador to Mexico Vladimir Villegas wrote a stinging op-ed piece trashing the new Media Law under discussion in the legislature. Villegas, who is also a former president of government mouthpiece VTV, sensibly blasts the law for "legalizing censorship" and "criminalizing journalism."

He claims the law is not needed because current Venezuelan libel laws are sufficient, and the Constitution has additional provisions regarding the right to respond to information broadcast by the media. He also blasts the government for closing 34 radio stations, saying that the excuses given by Communications Czar Diosdado Cabello about this being "an administrative decision" are bunk.

Read the piece here . The only question one is left with is why Villegas still calls himself a chavista.

Our Insane New Cycle

Quico says: Can you believe that the revelation that Venezuelan army AT4 rocket launchers were found in FARC's possession is less than one week old!?

After Twittergate, the Ley CDM, the closing of three dozen radio stations, Chávez's groin injury, Rangel Silva trying to get FARC anti-aircraft weapons, the P.R.-destroying, constitution-defying Electoral Processes Law being passed (boy that one flew under the radar), CNB broadcasting via loudspeaker (wait, doesn't sound count as a public airwave?!), Lina Ron's toilet emergency, and the 700 other important-but-not-flashy stories swept under the rug by all this mayhem, the AT4s story already seems positively ancient!

Créelo...it hasn't even been a week.

There's just no keeping up.

Sometimes I amuse myself by trying to imagine how the U.S. media might deal with any one story of comparable magnitude stateside - Michael Moore leads tear-gas raid against FoxNews! or Federal elections commission to Gerrymander all congressional districts nationwide to favor democrats! or Attorney General calls for Michelle Malkin to be jailed! - can you imagine?!

Any one of those would get wall-to-wall coverage on the cable news channels for weeks on end, setting off a constitutional crisis and a spate of resignations. Here, we're expected to take all that in in a single week...plus do things like laundry and brushing our teeth as well...it's not possible, I tell you.

Our news cycle is as hyperactive as our presi. Amid the ongoing crackdown on the media, the government fails to grasp that the way you really screw the papers is by...being boring!

Seriously, a government that generates this volume of news is, objectively speaking, a journalistic God send...bad for sanity, granted...but Venezuelan newsrooms don't know the meaning of the term "slow news day".

Gas del Bueno

Quico says: A group of some 35 pro-Chávez thugs, have just stormed Globovisión and tossed multiple tear gas canisters into the building. The group, led by notorious Chavista shocktroop leader Lina Ron, subdued the station's security personnel using firearms and wounded two people: a guard, and a local cop.

I don't like to throw words like this around. But on this occassion, it doesn't really feel like I have a choice:

What we're seeing here is fascism.

Fascism is a method for administering state violence in order to intimidate, harass and, if need be, jail, exile or kill dissidents into submission. What happened today in Globovision was a crime. The systematic use of such crimes on the part of the state as an intimidatory tactic to suppress dissent, that is fascism.

Funny how, in Venezuela, the word's lost its edge. It's been drained of meaning through overuse - together with a fair dose of deliberate propagandistic misuse - to such an extent, I have to wonder if it's even possible to rescue the original horror it conveyed.

You can't hear the word tossed around happily 300 times per day on VTV without it dulling your sense for its gravity. Its true meaning may be beyond our collective reach by now. But then, deforming language is part of the Chávez recipe.

Make no mistake about it, it is extremely grave.