Putting the fun in devaluation

Juan Cristobal says: - Let's play psychic.

With oil tanking and the world veering on recession, things are not looking good for Venezuela, no matter what Chávez says. Specifically, it's looking like the government will be forced to devaluate some time in the future just to keep afloat.

Now, obviously, things could change and oil could surge. The government may put off devaluation altogether, but that's looking increasingly unlikely.

So, I'd like to run a simple poll on when you think the government will be forced to announce an increase of the official, Misión Cadivi-subsidized rate of BsF 2.15.

The person who gets closer to the actual date without going over wins a blog post praising his or her judgment and character.

My guess? February 1st.

Some nuggets are worth keeping

Juan Cristobal says: - The President talks a lot of bunk, but sometimes, the stuff he says is really meaningful. Like yesterday, when he said:

"We have managed to detach ourselves from the capitalist economy, and we have created our own, solid economic system..."

"If the price of oil receded to what it was in 2006, when it averaged $55 a barrel, you can be sure that Venezuela will not be affected by the world's crisis... be sure that we will continue growing, both in social and in economic terms..."

There it is, you heard it. The crisis won't affect us because we are safeguarded against it.

Ergo, we are not taking any extra precaution.

Ergo, when the feces hits the ventilator, you'll know it's his fault.

His and his alone, for not taking the necessary precautions. His and his alone, for misreading the effect of the crisis on Venezuela.

His and his alone, for maintaining a warped foreign exchange control that subsidizes imports and for increasing the size of the State beyond any reasonable measure.

His and his alone, for "creating" an "economic system" that wasn't totally new nor totally detached from global crises.

You can just link back to this post when it happens.

PS.- Quico is travelling and I'm in the middle of a complicated move, so posting will be light in the next few days. Our apologies.