Well, according to the Coordinadora Democratica, the Reafirmazo amply fulfilled its legal purpose, but fell just short politically. It's a bit of a disappointment for the opposition side, but if anything, it makes the coming dynamic all the more interesting.
I made the following little chart comparing the coordinadora's claimed signature tally, with the vote totals Chavez received on July 30, 2000. In many ways this is apples and oranges, because as everyone knows, tu voto es secreto, tu firma no. (Your vote is secret, your signature isn't, as the hateful slogan of chavista intidation goes.) More on this soon.
[For reasons incomprehensible to my HTML-novice hands, blogger leaves a huge empty space below before the table. Simply scroll down a few screens to see it. Sorry about this. $%(*$)*! bogger!]
| Votes vs. Signatures | Chavez 2000 | Opp. 2003 | % swing | vote Swing |
| Central Caracas | 387,360 | 359,206 | -7.3% | -28,154 |
| Amazonas | 14,450 | 11,533 | -20.2% | -2,917 |
| Anzoategui | 189,613 | 187,428 | -1.2% | -2,185 |
| Apure | 53,527 | 50,174 | -6.3% | -3,353 |
| Aragua | 292,915 | 176,513 | -39.7% | -116,402 |
| Barinas | 105,207 | 76,625 | -27.2% | -28,582 |
| Bol?var | 188,949 | 123,029 | -34.9% | -65,920 |
| Carabobo | 303,701 | 309,682 | 2.0% | 5,981 |
| Cojedes | 47,409 | 38,816 | -18.1% | -8,593 |
| Delta Amacuro | 25,157 | 10,005 | -60.2% | -15,152 |
| Falc?n | 131,304 | 129,403 | -1.4% | -1,901 |
| Gu?rico | 98,481 | 71,210 | -27.7% | -27,271 |
| Lara | 237,238 | 238,361 | 0.5% | 1,123 |
| Mérida | 127,362 | 123,098 | -3.3% | -4,264 |
| Miranda | 346,003 | 470,608 | 36.0% | 124,605 |
| Monagas | 113,464 | 126,614 | 11.6% | 13,150 |
| Nueva Esparta | 70,805 | 76,648 | 8.3% | 5,843 |
| Portuguesa | 146,628 | 83,788 | -42.9% | -62,840 |
| Sucre | 145,219 | 104,018 | -28.4% | -41,201 |
| T?chira | 160,194 | 159,924 | -0.2% | -270 |
| Trujillo | 116,568 | 83,031 | -28.8% | -33,537 |
| Vargas | 58,958 | 42,821 | -27.4% | -16,137 |
| Yaracuy | 82,836 | 93,466 | 12.8% | 10,630 |
| Zulia | 312,415 | 466,410 | 49.3% | 153,995 |
| Total | 3,757,773 | 3,602,051 | -4.1% | -155,722 |
| Firmazo source: Coordinadora estimate (www.eud.com) | ||||
| 2000 Election source: CNE (www.cne.gov.ve) | ||||
