November 20, 2008

Two more 23N maps

Quico says: The pre-election forecasts are coming thick and fast now, and just to keep the people who make them accountable after the election, we're going to keep posting them.

Opposition-linked pollster Oscar Schemel of Hinterlaces has a map that's not miles away from our own forecast:

Schemel has Cojedes and Yaracuy reversed from our map, and he's holding out hope for our side in Vargas, which no one else seems to be doing. He doesn't think Sucre is in the bag yet, though, or that we have a chance in Mérida or Aragua.

The biggest difference, though, has to do with Bolívar, where Schemel thinks we're likely to win, even though the opposition vote will be split between two rival former governors each of which is about as popular as the other! How that's supposed to work, I have no idea...

Then there's Chaverrific pro-government pollster Consultores 30.11. The Venezuelan Embassy in DC has been circulating their forecast - which, right there, tells you about as much as you need to know about these guys' independence. Going through their slides, I got this map:

Ummmm...where to start? 30.11 thinks we have a better chance in Delta Amacuro than we do in Táchira! And they give us an outside chance in Cojedes - rushing into territory where Schemel fears to tread...but then they call Zulia, which the opposition is very likely to win by double-digits, a toss up.

Lets not mince words: this map makes no sense. Their methodology sheet is so garbled, I have to wonder if any actual polling at all went into the making it.

But hey, at least they're giving us Margarita...