February 10, 2009

Hinterlaces Says

Quico says: In their latest set of slides, Hinterlaces (Oscar Schemel's outfit) break down the results of their polling in the second half of January:

Now, Schemel is an oppo pollster, no question about it. Bear in mind that his cities-only methodology unquestionably undercounts rural voters, who have broken decisively in favor of chavismo in every recent election. On the other hand, Schemel's not completely hackish. He actually does poll people at home, in large and mid sized cities spread over 21 states, using reasonable sample sizes: 1190 interviews per week here.

So, whether you buy the absolute numbers or not, the trend should mean something. And the trend here is...there is no trend!

By the last week in January, the Sí resurgence had run its course.

The government is working with a pretty limited ceiling here. Its only hope lies in massive, extremely aggressive mobilization. Buses, buses and more buses. They need to go all out to get every single one of their supporters to the polls and to keep oppo supporters away somehow. They're not short on resources, and it's in no way a foregone conclusion that they won't pull it off. But it's going to be very close.

As always, if you have access to a poll, any poll, please send it along: caracaschronicles at fastmail dot fm