February 16, 2009

A Tale of Three Elections

Quico says: So I've been thinking of new ways to visualize the data from last night's massive bummer. I thought comparing them to the 2007 referendum and last november's regional elections might be interesting.

In the next couple of charts, "Oppo 2008" includes dissident chavista gubernatorial candidates. Click on any of these images to enlarge them...

And this is the same thing expressed in percentage terms:

These next two charts call Zulia, Falcón and Lara "Noroccidente", Miranda, DC and Vargas "Gran Caracas," Yaracuy, Carabobo and Aragua "Centro", and treats Guayana as part of "Oriente."

This next one focuses just on the gap between the sides in each region.

Chavismo improved its performance over the opposition's 2007 showing in every region. It turned a 163,508 deficit in the Northwest into a 25,000 vote advantage, an 8% improvement over 2 years. It also turned a 144,586 vote shortfall in Gran Caracas into an 80 vote (literally, 80 people) lead in Caracas - a 6% improvement. In the Andes, chavismo did just 4% better than in 2007.

But where it improved the most was in the Center of the country - particularly Aragua, wher we got shalocked - and the rural areas. In the Centro, the government added 230,483 net votes, a 12% improvement over its own performance of 15 months ago. Proportionally, it's the Llanos that really came home for Chávez: the 164,914 net gain over his result of 2007 represent a 15% improvement over his showing then.

Tentative morning-after conclusion? The urban rural split is getting deeper, not shallower. And Aragua is a weird place.