Election tree update

Quico says: Actually, there are eight logical possibilities:

Care to hazard a guess how this will go?

Which scenario do you think is most likely?
1. Rosales does a Kerry	2. Rosales does an AMLO	3. Chavez does a Daniel Ortega	4. Chavez goes Burmese
5. Chavez does a Carlos Salinas	6. Rosales goes Ukrainian	7. Rosales does an Enrique Mendoza	8. Rosales goes Ukrainian anyway
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