December 2, 2007

Whaddayamean "neck-and-neck"?!?

Quico says: For the record, that C21 poll released last night leaves the final chart of the most recent, most relevant polls looking like this:

The final Big Poll Chart (which includes every survey I could get my hands on) has gotten a bit unwieldy, just because it has so much data in it by now. If you click on it, though, you can download it, and then it's much easier to read:

Lets review the bidding here:
  • The "No" has had an underlying lead among all poll respondents all along.
  • It's now been three months since a survey not paid for by the government gave the Sí option a clear lead among likely voters.
  • Out of the nine nationwide surveys carried out in November,
    • Six give the No a clear lead
    • Two say it's "too close to call"
    • One gives the Sí a clear lead.
  • The one November poll that gives Sí a clear lead is by a fly-by-night firm that may or may not be a Chávez sockpuppet.
Yet the standard line in the international press is still that "most polls show a neck-and-neck race."

I'm sorry, but I call bullshit. That's just factually wrong.