December 1, 2007

Consultores 21's Final Word

Katy & Quico say: Funny how there always seems to be "just one more poll".

Consultores 21 carried out 1500 in-home interviews between Nov. 26th and Nov. 30 in the country's nine largest cities (margin of error=2.6%) and compared the results with an earlier poll of 840 voters in those same nine cities (margin of error=3.5%). So this poll is not directly comparable to the previous C21 poll we reported, which was based on a nationwide (i.e., Urban+Rural) sample.

Once again, the momentum is all on one side:

It's not just that more people are planning to vote No than just a couple of weeks ago, it's that more people believe the No side will win. That conviction is important when it comes to turning out NiNis.

Nonetheless, the all-urban sample tends to overstate the No vote. Based on previous data about the Urban-Rural split, Consultores 21 corrects their results. They then go out on a limb and project a nationwide outcome: 55.7% for the "No" and 44.4% for the "Sí".

If anything, they conclude the gap between the "No" and the "Sí" has widened in the last few days, and that the trend points to the "No" to increasing its lead.