November 29, 2007

The prodigal poll

Quico says: The final poll of the season is out, and it's a doosy.

Consultores 21 polled 2000 voters, nationwide, in their homes, between Nov. 17 and Nov. 25th. The headline figures? It's looking good, but, again, it will come down to turnout:

What's distinctive about this poll is not just the big sample, it's that they go to great lengths to sample "the lost 25%": voters in rural areas. This is important, because that demographic tends heavily in favor of the government:

No other polling company targets the rural vote, which could bias them in favor of the No side. But, even taking rural voters into account, Consultores 21 foresees a No win by a margin of 5 to 15 points.

It's all down to the turnout now. In last year's Presidential Election, 75% of registered voters turned out. If we get anywhere near that this year, the No will be very hard to beat.

For the record, here's how the final chart of credible, nationwide polls conducted in November looks: