November 30, 2007

One more...


Quico says:
Did I say Consultores 21 was the last poll of the season? I lied. Hinterlaces has just put out one last poll. This one is based on 1,642 telephone interviews in cities done between November 26th and 29th (i.e., yesterday). Specifically, they polled the largest municipality in each of the 15 most populous states. Be aware that this all-urban polling does tend to overstate the No-vote...nonetheless:

["Certain to vote" results corrected.]

And then, the stunner: four out of five of respondents are now telling Schemel they're sure to vote. Surely, if turnout is that high, the Sí is toast...

Schemel closes by forecasting a No win by 7 to 16 points.

By the way, I am still updating the Big Poll Chart at the top of the right-hand column, but there are so many polls on it now it's a bit hard to read. For ease of use, I've made another, clearer chart of just the most recent, nationwide polls:

The chart kind of reminds me of that old Sesame Street song...
One of these things is not like the other things
one of these things just doesn't belong
can you guess which of these things is not like the other things
before I finish my song?