Rafael (from the comments section) says: With all this talk about how this time Chavez has a lot to lose, not much mention has been made of what happens if we end up with Sucre, Nueva Esparta and nothing else...
That would be a complete reversal of any momentum from last december, and a return to the wilderness from which we may not be able to recover in a long time. That would leave the door open for the approval of the indefinite reelection, and being out of any important regional office for a few more years may make people thing that the only legitimate office pretenders have to be chavistas. The only reason Rosales and his bunch are competitive right now is because they have been there recently, not because of any other particular talent or quality.
I have a bad feeling about this one, we should be much further ahead.
Quico ads: I want to be clear. This is not the most likely scenario. As of one week ago, polling still showed us narrowly ahead in Carabobo, Zulia, Táchira, Trujillo, and Guarico, with Miranda and Barinas basically tied and Cojedes within reach. This here is the worst-case scenario, what would happen if PSUV got a boost in the last week of the campaign and then beat the hell out of us at the turnout game. We're in possible-but-not-likely land here.
