January 12, 2008

Party time

Si mi muerte contribuye a que cesen los partidos y se consolide la unión, bajaré tranquilo al sepulcro.

Simón Bolívar


Katy says: I once knew a family who lived in a house with no windows, and they were a singularly dysfunctional bunch.

The mother was terribly nice but always seemed to be medicated; the father announced one day that he was leaving her and his seven children to go live with a woman he had been seeing for twenty years, and was the mother of his other kids, aged 15 and 12.

I always thought their fate was tied somehow to that strange house. It had no yard and only two doors linking it directly to the street: the front door and the service door. Somehow, the fact that daylight never entered clouded their ability to see inside themselves and the ongoing problems within their house.

Someone once said to me that a democracy without political parties is like a house without windows. I guess it's not a huge leap to say that a house with bad or disfunctional political parties is like a house with only a very small window.

At any rate, the point is that if you lived in a house like that, you would want to move. Likewise, societies that live in democracies with bad political parties are societies that will tire of democracy quickly.

I bring this up because of the undeniable fact that our political parties are not what we would want them to be. The deserved disappearance of AD and Copei paved the road to what we have now: a military "movement" of sorts headed by a caudillo and financed by oil money, and a bunch of new-ish political parties trying to get some traction.

Building a political party from scratch is incredibly complicated. Putting the crucial issue of marketing aside, parties are incredibly expensive to put together. You need to find a bunch of people from all walks of life (students, older people, women, etc.) who, somehow, think alike, without having defined exactly what it is that binds them together. These people will probably have hidden agendas which will undermine the party's goals. Rivalries emerge out of nowhere, and newish parties are not well-equipped from an institutional standpoint to withstand crises caused by clashes of leadership.

These complications have led parties in Venezuela to follow the caudillo model: group a bunch of people together whose only reason for being there is that they believe in or are under the patronage of a specific party "leader." Each and every party that has existed in Venezuela has suffered from this to a certain extent.

Those of us who've been around the block a few times carry an attitude toward political parties that is naturally suspicious. We have been trained by years of scandals to mistrust parties and politicians in general.

However, some people take this too far. They replace healthy skepticism with downright aggression. They not only expect little of political parties, they see them as the enemy and hope for nothing short of their disappearance. They are genetically programmed to not believe in anything politicians say or do, and automatically assume that whatever they are doing, they are always screwing up.

This attitude is curious, and one that we should not take lightly. Many of the voters in the opposition base - heck, many of our readers - fall into this group. What to make of them? Are they simply mistaken? Is this an attitude where we simply have to agree to disagree?

I see people who take skepticism too far as anarchists. According to Wikipedia - apologies beforehand for the citation - the modern anarchist theory proposed "spontaneous order." This is a theory that believes in "the spontaneous emergence of order out of seeming chaos." Anarchists "tend to believe that spontaneous order is superior to any kind of order that can be created by a plan or design."

Anarchism rejects organized action - the government being their main enemy - and instead calls for a world without central authority, where everybody acts according to his or her own wishes and where social order emerges from business transactions between individuals.

French anarchist Pierre-Joseph Proudhon saw anarchy as "a form of government or constitution in which public and private consciousness, formed through the development of science and law, is alone sufficient to maintain order and guarantee all liberties. In it, as a consequence, the institutions of the police, preventive and repressive methods, officialdom, taxation, etc., are reduced to a minimum. In it, more especially, the forms of monarchy and intensive centralization disappear, to be replaced by federal institutions and a pattern of life based on the commune."

People who actively hate current political parties, who jump at the chance to point out their numerous failures, seem to me wishing for them to disappear. It's as if they thirst for politicians to be punished for the mere fact that they are politicians, that their stated goal is to achieve power and to exercise it.

However, these people also want some change in the social order. They are not apathetic about politics; quite the contrary. They are willing to support any "spontaneous" movement that arises, and to support specific individuals who lack organization just because they may agree with his or her positions and, most importantly, because the emergence of alternative leadership undermines political parties.

But this is not a good thing per se. Those of us who put in time to talk about Venezuelan politics, who follow it with interest, should ask ourselves to what extent we are replacing healthy skepticism and lowered expectations with irrational attacks against organized political parties. We should wonder about that schadenfreude we feel when we see parties make mistakes, the joy we feel when we think the people have "punished them" for one thing or another.

Our parties are deficient, but if we fail to grasp the many difficulties they face or continue placing unreasonable expectations on them, we may be fostering anarchy. And let's face it, having bad political parties is better than having no political parties at all but rather "movements" centered on "individuals."

Perhaps you don't think this is true, in which case you should revisit the anarchy theories. But if you believe in democracy, you have to believe in parties, in which case you should try to temper your criticisms. Otherwise, by pushing for the death of political parties, you may be throwing out the baby along with the bath-water.

(Disclosure: The author is a registered member of Primero Justicia, an opposition political party).

January 10, 2008

Rules of engagement

Katy says: A New Electoral Year has begun. The main focus right now on the minds of local politicos is - or should be! - the State and Local Elections of October 2008.

Candidates for governor, mayors, councilmembers and state assembly-people have to be registered by April of this year. Undoubtedly, the opposition will have to come to some sort of agreement over who to run where. So before they hunker down to negotiate, here are my tips for things each party should keep in mind before negotiating, for everyone's benefit.

1) Before you begin, think of one big position you would be willing to give up. All negotiations entail compromise. It would be nice if every party thought of one sure-fire candidate, one juicy prize they would be willing to give up on for the sake of unity. If you cannot think of a single high-profile post you would be willing to cede to a different candidate, then you are in no position to negotiate. This doesn't mean you have to make it public, but it does help put you in a negotiating frame of mind.

2) Don't feel the need to compromise on everything. Compromise is good but it entails costs. The public doesn't want total unity, they just want to win. So in places where we are assured to win - either because the electorate is heavily opposition or because chavismo is weak - don't feel the need to overdo it. For example, we don't really need a unity candidate in Chacao, Baruta or the Zulia and Nueva Esparta governorships. Who knows, it may even be healthy to let the parties compete in those places so we can focus on others. Which would be...

3) Focus on the big states where you can make high-profile gains. These would be the states that combine poor governance by regional leaders with a high profile and, most importantly, a high budget and a large population. Winning Delta Amacuro would be nice, but it doesn't hold a candle to getting back the Carabobo governorship. States to focus on also include Lara, Mérida, Táchira, Miranda and Anzoátegui. Cities to focus on include Maracaibo, Barquisimeto, Valencia, Mérida, San Cristóbal and all the municipalities in Caracas, including the Mayor-at-Large.

4) Send a heavyweight to a swing state. After the "No" win last December, we realized there was a red-state blue-state dynamic in Venezuela as well. Yet while it would be simple to simplify thing this way, some states are actually caught in the middle. For example, chavismo eked out a victory in Falcón for fewer than 800 votes. Even though it is still technically a chavista state, it is up for the taking if the right person comes along. Why not ask Rosales to run for the governor's office?

5) Reward regional leadership, but don't reward history. The movement that led to the December victory included people who may not be part of a political party but who certainly don't want to feel left out. Furthermore, there are many people that have been working the grassroots for years in getting out the vote. These upcoming elections would be a great opportunity to reward them for all the hard work they have put in by supporting them and getting them elected. However, there are some politicians who feel entitled without having earned it. I'm talking about people who may have ruled a long time ago but have either been missing in action for the past few years (Enrique Mendoza or the Salas family) or were openly calling for abstention just a few weeks ago (Ledezma). These people are a liability to the opposition movement, and in no way should opposition groups feel they owe them anything. It would simplify the process if they were kept in the sidelines.

If the goal is to win, then we have to negotiate. But if negotiate we must, let's try and do it succesfully.

January 8, 2008

Obama, Chávez and the politics of change


Katy says: Here are some random musings on the fascinating, rapidly changing U.S. election.

1) The two best pieces on the election I have read recently are by Christopher Hitchens on Slate and Gloria Steinem in the New York Times. Hitchens is crazy and Steinem is an over-the-hill radical, but they are both making a lot of sense to me. Have I, too, gone bonkers?

2) I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Obama will win New Hampshire, the nomination and the White House. He has tapped the current of change when the U.S. was ready it. Chavez, on the other hand, wanted to push radical changes through the country when the country felt things were going fine. The lesson is: don't push change too much when people don't want it, and push it relentlessly when people do. Tailoring your message to the mood of the electorate works.

3) What lessons does this hold for the upcoming regional elections in Venezuela? People want governance, they want solutions to their problems and they want somebody who is willing to work to make it happen. They want the inefficient chavista bureaucrats out, but they don't want Chávez himself to go. Candidates for governor and mayors should pledge to work *with* the government *for* the people, focusing on the specific needs of the people in their jurisdiction. Anything more radical than that would be seen as too dangerous, and pave the way for chavistas to hold on to their seats.

4) Opposition candidates lacking the backing of other opposition parties will be seen as divisive. They will not be able to make the case that they can work with the government if they can't show they can work with their natural allies. This is why some sort of unity agreement is needed.

5) Obama has said that he would be willing to meet with Chavez face-to-face, along with a list of other rogue ne'er-do-wells such as Iranian President Ahmadinejad. On another occassion, Obama called Chavez an "oil tyrant". Obama has supported the Cuban embargo but pledged to make it more flexible. However, his website does not mention Venezuela or Latin America, and on the rare times when he has talked about Latin America, his comments have been strikingly vague.

6) It's nice to see a candidate understand the power of words, charisma and symbols. It's troubling to see who this election's real kingmaker is.

January 7, 2008

Reading the Magical State

Quico says: The Magical State, the 1997 monograph on Venezuelan petrocracy by University of Michigan anthropologist Fernando Coronil, is a magisterial, bone-headed, brilliant, infuriating, path breaking failure: a book that gets a stunning number of things right on its way to leaving you basically unsatisfied.

That, at any rate, is how I felt after re-reading it for the first time in ten years. Coronil's book teems with fresh insights weighed down by the kind of trendy, post-post-colonialist academic jargon that blighted the gringo social science establishment through the 1990s, a style whose essential faddishness is showed up by the fact that just a decade later, it already looks dated.

It's too bad, because just beneath the tragically hip surface there's a cultural historian with something substantial to say aching to get out. His essential point is contained in the three word marvel of concision that is his title. For Coronil, Venezuela's petrostate really is magical...albeit only in the sense a children's party magician is magical. Like the kiddy magician, the Venezuelan petrostate's performance is an elaborate sham. Promising development, it produces only the appearance of development, promising modernity, it is able to deliver only the outward trappings of the developed countries' reality. Exploring the reasons for this state of affairs is what the book sets out to do.

Needless to say, oil wealth and the way it has been assimilated into Venezuela's political culture provides the bulk of the answer. Ever the anthropologist, Coronil devotes much of his attention on oil as an ideational force, noting the way growing consciousness of its importance structured Venezuelans' collective identity, and cemented the absolute centrality of the state in national life.


With the violent expansion of this independently wealthy state, all major social groups had come to see it as the source of their security or fortune. More fundamental, their very identity was bound up with the state, for they had been formed or transformed by its expansion. Before it they stood in awe. To the extent that they were offspring of the petrostate, their historical formation as social forces was too recent, their political experiences too narrow, their reliance on the state's financial and political resources too great, for them to follow an independent course of action.
This stress on oil's role as the crucible of our political identity is both the book's main strength and its ultimate undoing: Coronil's semiotic insight and considerable talent as a historian is let down time and again by his economic ignorance and the narrowness of his theoretical reference points. In fact, more than once I found myself wishing for rather more history and less flaky theoretical rumination. It's as a work of interpretative history that the Magical State really shines.

Coronil shows us how, for as long as it has been possible to speak openly about such things (that is, from the moment Gomez died) Venezuelan public discourse took it for granted that a shared right to benefit from oil revenues is an essential part of what it means to be Venezuelan. As early as 1936, virtually the entirety of the country's elite saw the state as society's instrument for bringing about modernity. In one of a series of eye-opening moments, Coronil notes that when Uslar Pietri coined his much abused line about "sowing the oil" in 1936, he was not expressing some radically new concept but simply summarizing what was conventional wisdom.

Coronil stresses that the growing consciousness of the enormous wealth buried deep inside Venezuela led to a conceptualization of the nation as made up of two bodies. Whereas most countries build a collective understanding of nationhood on the basis of shared belonging to a social body, Venezuelan nationalism added a widely shared sense of collective ownership of the nation's natural body as well. Venezuelanness, in this sense, is essentially unlike Colombianness or Frenchness or Brazilianness. Since 1936, Venezuelanness has been not just about our relationship with one another, but also about our relationship with it, with the vast store of wealth laying untapped under our feet.

The jarring disconnect between the untold riches beneath the soil and the staggering poverty on top of it has been perceived as an outrage all along, and has served as the driving ideological force behind every major political reallignment since the death of Gomez. And all along, people have conceived of the state's role as bridging that chasm by making overground Venezuela as rich as underground Venezuela is.

As Coronil would have it, the notion that only the state could articulate the relationship between "the nation's two bodies" has never been seriously in doubt. If there is one thing that successive Venezuelan elites have agreed on since 1936 is that the state exists to perform this miracle of transubstantiation: turning black guck into modernity. But, Coronil contends, a fundamental inability to distinguish between modernity and the signs of modernity has frustrated the project time and again.

As the old saying goes, when you have a hammer in your hand, everything starts to look like a nail. And when you have a wad of cash in your pocket, everything starts to seem like it's for sale.

Cash in its pocket is what the petrostate had, all along. And so the task of transmogrifying oil wealth into development came to be seen as a matter of purchasing modernity. Only trouble is, of course, you can't buy modernity by the pound. It lacks materiality, it is not a thing or a service, it cannot be made into a commodity. And it was this essential fact that successive governing elites seemed unable to grasp.

That failure is understandable. After all, when you go to modern countries, you see the signs of modernity all around you. You see the highways and the skyscrapers, the ports and airports and factories and telephone poles. You are surrounded by the manifestations of modernity, its physicality, its embodiment into things that have a price and can be bought. Isn't that what modernity is? Well, it sure seemed like it...and to successive petrostate elites sitting on wads of cash, it seemed like a no brainer: a modern country is a country filled with modern things.

And so a series of buying sprees resulted, more or less grandiose depending on the state of the oil market. Coronil focuses on two: Perez Jimenez's aggressive public works programs of the 1950s and Carlos Andres Perez's experiment in Big Push industrialization a realazos in the 1970s, spending considerable energy working out, in some detail, how and why the unprecedented building booms of both eras left Venezuela a poor country with lots of rich country things in it rather than a rich country.

To my mind, Coronil gets substantial credit for asking the right questions...his identification of the site Venezuelan failure is far more sophisticated than most. But the answers he gives fall far short of the mark.

Coronil doesn't really seem to have a firm enough grasp of economics to understand what specifically went wrong with the 50s and 70s industrialization drives. So he spends well over 100 pages sketching out the stories of specific failed development projects that, though fascinating in their own right, he doesn't really know how to connect with his broader theoretical argument.

The result is a kind of monographic schizophrenia, with the book running along parallel tracks that never quite seem to intersect. Both the theoretical and the historical tracks are interesting, but you're never quite sure why it is they belong in the same book.

This is a shame, and puzzling too, because the theoretical points he makes suggest themselves naturally as interpretative aids in making sense of the narrative history. Obvious connections, however, go maddeningly unnoticed for chapters on end.

Fundamentally, his theoretical explanation of The Venezuelan Failure rests on the elite's inability to distinguish between the "hardware" and the "software" of modernity, about successive governing elite's misguided belief that people's inner selves could be transformed through the expedient of transforming their physical surroundings.

But his historical narratives just fail to connect those dots. Most egregiously, the book devotes a whole chapter to the 1970s and 1980s import-substitituion policies in the auto sector without once stopping to note the way those policies instantiated a fetishistic concern with the materiality of production, treating the domestic manufacture of cars as synonymous with industrial independence even though all of the engineering and design work would be carried out elsewhere, by foreign multinationals. The fundamental difference between technology and technological capacity simply eludes him: producing Ford engines under licensing agreements is the guy's concept of technology transfer.

Set aside, for the moment, the fact that his understanding of the role of technology in capitalist production is at least two decades out of date: what's startling is that his account does exactly what he accuses CAP and Perez Jimenez of doing. It mistakes the material manifestations of capitalism (steel mills, hydroelectric plants, engine factories) for capitalism itself, the hardware of capitalist production for its software. It's as though amid his stinging critique of the fetishization of the tokens of modernity, Coronil hasn't quite freed himself from the habits of mind he's critiquing.

It's not the only instance where Coronil leaves the reader to fill in the blanks where his most significant arguments ought to be. The earlier part of the book is taken up with a fascinating narrative history of Venezuela from the Gomez era to the launch of puntofijismo. Coronil is (rightly) concerned to note how Gomecismo created the template of petrostate governance Venezuela has followed ever since, regardless of the vastly different ideological labels various governments have touted. But in this section, again, the most interesting insights remain just below the threshold of explicitness.

For Coronil, the traditional periodization of Venezuelan history, marked by its sharp distinction between dictatorial governments (1821-1936, 1948-1958) and democratic ones (1936-1948, 1958-1997) obscures more than it illuminates. Ever since the start of the oil era, both all have agreed on their basic conceptualization of the role of the state as modernizing agent at the interstice between the nation's social and natural bodies. Rather than sharply divergent political models, Coronil interprets 20th century dictatorships and democracies as variants of the basic petrostate model, where a governing elite sets out to transmute oil into modernity but, for various reasons, fails.

All of that strikes me as correct, important, and not-widely-enough-understood. Yet his narrative history of the period fails to make obvious connections between the fates of successive regimes, connections that are consistent with his overall view and evidently suggested by the evidence he sets forth.

In each of the cases he examines (1936, 1945, 1948, 1958), the pattern he documents is the same. A marginalized political actor organizes dissent against the governing clique. Noting that the nation's oil wealth belongs to all its people, it slams the monopolization of political power and oil wealth in the hands of the governing clique. Capitalizing on a brewing anger at the perenially baffling gap between subsoil wealth and oversoil poverty, it sets out to gain control of the state. In time, it succeeds, wresting control of the state and setting out to revolutionize the way it plays its role as mediator between the nation's social and natural bodies, sure that, unlike all its predecessors, it knows the right way to transmogrify oil wealth into modernity. But, in time, the new governing elite turns inward, governing increasingly for its own benefit, concentrating power in the president and repeating many of the cliquish and sectarian policies it criticized in the previous elite. This antagonizes groups disenfranchised by its rule. Those new groups in turn organize dissent against the governing clique, slamming its monopolization of the nation's natural body, and swearing that they and they alone can be trusted to truly make oil wealth benefit everyone...lather, rinse, repeat...

It's what the young officers did to the gomecista clique in 1936, what AD did to the Medina in 1945, what the military did to AD in 1948, and what the Junta Patriotica did to the military in 1958. Just a couple of years after the publication of Coronil's book, it's what Chavez did to Puntofijismo...and you can bet your right testicle that, in broad outline, it's the way chavismo will eventually fall. And yet, though he puts forth mountains of evidence for this view, Coronil fails to explicitly note the pattern, to problematize it or seek to theorize it or even accept it exists.

If Coronil's scandalous economic illiteracy prevents him from drawing the obvious connections in the later part of the book, an equally baffling failure to apply basic insights from political science lead him to drop this pop fly. If he had any notion of bureaucratic politics, any sense of the principal agent problem, or even just a basic willingness to look beyond groovy academic marxism and explore incentives-based rational choice hypotheses, Coronil might have seen the way taking control of the state itself transforms the incentive structures of new governing elites, and sets the stage for their eventual overthrow, renewing the petrostate political cycle over and over again.

Alas, his theoretical reference points are too narrow to allow for that sort of thing. He won't go there. So even at 394 pages, the book feels weirdly underwritten, like it never quite gets around to developing the most suggestive themes it raises. The final package is as brilliant as it is infuriating: a fascinating, enthralling wreck of a book.

Am I glad I read it again? For sure. His retelling of the 1948 and 1952 coups alone are well worth the price of entry. Actually most of the narrative history really is brilliant: concise, well documented, to the point, and fun. That the theory doesn't really mesh with it, and instead alternates between sheer genius and pure paja doesn't detract from that one bit. I say read it...but be prepared to yell at it a lot.

January 4, 2008

A goat, a black jenny, a white mare and a good mother-in-law


Katy says: And a happy 2008 to you! After a well-deserved break, this blog is back in action. Things were quiet toward the end of the year but are starting to pick up quickly. So ... what has the Fat Man in the Palace been up to?

Well, in the continuing saga of Chávez's unwelcome involvement in Colombia's civil war, the President put on a show for the release of three FARC hostages, only to see the whole thing blow up in his face. Oliver Stone was on hand to direct a documentary, but they should have called Christopher Guest instead - it was a tragedy disguised as farce.

Today we learn that the Colombian government's hypothesis was correct: the boy in custody is indeed Clara Rojas' son, Emmanuel. Still, the Venezuelan government stupidly clings to conspiracy theories and questions the procedure carried out to analyze the boy's DNA, demanding instead access to the boy so they can carry out their own test.

Nicolás Maduro acts like he has a moustache for a brain. Leaving aside the fact that the Venezuelan government has no business whatsoever demanding participation in the custody proceedings of a three-year old Colombian boy, what does Venezuela seek to gain with all this?

What's more, if the Colombian government had indeed manipulated DNA samples to show that the boy was Clara's son when he was not, wouldn't it be made public sooner or later? How long would they be able to support a lie like that? What interest would they have in spinning something as clearly demonstrable as that?

Once Clara Rojas' mother was granted custody of the child, wouldn't it be easy for her to conduct her own DNA analysis? Somehow, Mrs. Rojas the elder doesn't seem like the type of person who would be comfortable raising a child as a grandchild knowing he is someone else's child instead.

At this point it's pretty clear the boy is Emmanuel, but the Venezuelan government insists on calling into question the procedures instead of acknowledging the FARC played them like a top. Instead of being legitimately pissed at the FARC for publicly embarassing Chavez when he least needed it, they continue picking fights with Colombian authorities.

(After writing the above, the comedy of errors continued. The FARC put out a press release acknowledging that the boy is, indeed, Emmanuel, but accusing the Colombian government of - get this - kidnapping the boy in Bogotá to prevent the FARC from turning him over to Chavez along with his mother and Consuelo González.)

At any rate, I didn't want to comment much more on this ongoing tragedy, since it doesn't really affect Venezuela. The only thing it accomplishes for us is to further show Chavez as a fool in the world stage, but after Chávez's annus horribilis this hardly merits mentioning.

The other big news of the day is Chávez's new cabinet. Although the extent of the changes are not known yet, we do know that Jorge Rodríguez leaves the Vice-president's post to redder pastures at the PSUV.

His replacement is current Housing Minister Ramon Carrizales. Other cabinet shuffles are being mentioned, but most of them are simply placing old faces in new positions. Some, as in the case of Andrés Izarra, consist of former Ministers taking up posts they used to occupy. Finance Minister Cabezas is rumoured to have resigned only days after the implementation of the new currency, but this has yet to be confirmed.

Other replacements raised eyebrows. Failed FARC negotiator Rodríguez Chacín is now back at the Interior Ministry - one wonders how many fake cédulas he'll print for himself this time around. Communist ideologue Haiman El-Troudi, someone I had the "pleasure" of listening to, will take over the Planning Ministry.

But back to the Vice-president's office: Rodríguez's departure is not a surprise. The government failed badly in December's referendum and this, along with Rodríguez's deep involvement in the Maleta-gate scandal, looks a lot like reckoning.

His replacement, though, is a curious one at first glance. Carrizales is the current Housing Minister, or rather, "Minister for Popular Power for Housing and Habitats" (I kid you not). Even though public housing construction picked up last year, it did not accomplish the goals the government set out for itself. By any objective standard, Carizales's tenure at the Housing Ministry was a failure, doing very little to solve Venezuela's severe housing deficit. He is also weirdly unknown, a guy with a relatively low profile until now.

However, Carrizales' previous position was not as much of a failure: he was the Infrastructure Minister in charge of finishing the new La Guaira Highway bridge on time and overseeing the massive new stadiums built for the Copa América. In terms of public infrastructure, those constitute some of the government's few relative successes.

Chávez words yesterday reveal what's behind some of these changes. He said that they couldn't let themselves be portrayed as extremists because they are not extremists. He talked about forging alliances with the middle class and even with the oligarchs. He said they were wrong in trying to eliminate private property, because this has failed the world over. Yes, I too choked on my dulce de lechoza when I read all this.

He talked about relaunching relations with the government's allies. He talked about the need to be more pragmatic and less ideological, saying that if the front of his house was covered by garbage, he, too, would protest, shut down streets and consider ideological discussions superfluous.

In other words, Chavez is hinting his goals for the year are to provide a sensible government that takes care of people's needs instead of forcing ideology down people's throats, Haiman El-Troudi notwithstanding. As a sign of this new approach, he passed a law at the beginning of the year granting amnesty to some of the political prisoners and politicians being prosecuted, a list that included names such as Cecilia Sosa, Leopoldo López, Maria Corina Machado and the Táchira prisoners, to the great annoyance of many of his most radical supporters.

Chávez may or may not be honest about this conversion, but that is beside the point. With his stunning defeat of last December and the series of very public embarassments in foreign affairs, with scarcity, inflation, people's annoyance at the new official time and the new currency, he had to change something. The big question is whether he can pull this transformation off and deliver "efficiency minus ideology" in time for the Regional elections in October.

His initial, narcissistic tirade as a reaction to defeat surely didn't win him favors with moderate supporters. The current moves are more mainstream, but serious questions remain. Let's not forget that Chávez finds day-to-day issues such as "governance" and "delivering public goods" as appealing as root-canal. What he most enjoys is ideological confrontation, so it remains unlikely that he will be able to focus on practical matters for more than a week.

Venezuelans usually dance to a song on New Year's Eve that talks about what the Old Year left us, things we are grateful for. The list of things includes "a goat, a black jenny, a white mare and a good mother-in-law."

I always found the lyrics absurd, but at least they invite the listener to ponder the passage of time and the lessons it leaves them. Perhaps Chávez has reflected on the lessons from the last year and decided to change course.

If his "goat" is a realization that he needs to tone down the crazy talk, if his "black jenny" is a purpose to work efficiently, if his "white mare" is a desire to provide better public services and if his "good mother-in-law" is an honest pledge to talk less about ideology, then it will be a happy new year indeed.

But don't count on it.

December 17, 2007

2007: The year in review


Katy, Quico and Lucia say: What a year it's been. Just twelve months ago, Hugo Chávez strode Venezuela's political scene like a colossus and the opposition was worn thin, worn down and worn out. Now, it's chavismo that's looking dazed and confused, after a year that saw everything from Al Qaeda threatening PDVSA to crime fighting blimps to commie subsidized Swarovski figurines to an outbreak of Locha nostalgia.

So take a trip down memory lane with us as we explore 2007 as seen through the eyes of Caracas Chronicles...


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January
2007 kicked off with news of Chávez's decision to name Jorge Rodríguez Vice-president, shunting legendary evil genius José Vicente Rangel to the side. At the time, Quico mused,
It may be that, in time, we'll come to see JVR's rampant cynicism with something akin to nostalgia, that we'll come to remember him as a moderating figure once no such figures are left in Chávez's entourage.
Emboldened by his decisive victory in the previous month's presidential election, Chávez was at the height of his power and ambition, unchained:
With power centralized absolutely, with no more institutional restraints in place, without even a looming election to impose a modicum of caution, we finally get to see chavismo the way Chávez wanted it all along: free to implement all of his utopian fantasies with utter, gleeful abandon.
Straight away, he pledged to nationalize the power and telephone companies, though, as Quico noted at the time, he never really explained why that was a good idea. He asked the National Assembly the power to rule by decree on pretty much all major aspects of national life. And, of course, to suspend RCTV's broadcasting license.


Towards the end of the month, Katy flipped out over a badly misjudged, commie/hippie BBC photo essay on "urban organic farming" in Caracas.



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February
Greater Caracas Mayor Juan Barreto started February with one of the more brazenly phallic attempts to suck up to Chávez we'd seen all year.

Continuing with the surreal theme, Central Bank director Domingo Maza Zavala told us he had no idea how much money the state was spending.

Quico then started boring readers with the first
of several philosophically minded posts on the role of deliberations in democratic decisionmaking. Zzzzzzzz...

It was around that time that TalCual was fined for publishing a front page editorial that alledgedly violated Rosinés Chávez's childhood privacy, and Quico urged readers to send in their donations to help cover the fine.

The next day, Al Qaeda said the way to fight the US empire was to attack facilities supplying oil to the US, wherever they may be found. Chavismo called it - wait for it - a CIA conspiracy.

The following week, Katy passionately defended Primero Justicia after a set of high profile defections to Un Nuevo Tiempo.

On February 28th, 18 years after the sadly famous Caracazo, Katy noted that too many of the military men responsible for the massacres are now in the upper echelons of chavista power.


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March
Quico wrote a series of articles on monetary issues, beginning with the new currency, the bolívar fuerte, set to make its debut January 1st, 2008. He wasn't really convinced by the attempt to erradicate devaluation by decree while ridiculing the government for thinking it could make the currency strong just by naming it the strong currency. He posted a nifty Powerpoint presentation on the Bono del Sur scam.

March also saw the beginning of the end of the honeymoon between the international press and Chavez, which had started with his landslide December victory. Media outlets and thinking heads overseas began to realize that the inminent closure of RCTV was non-kosher, but Quico was having none of it. Tarde piaste, pajarito!

The Barbara Walters interview with Chavez showed that there was still some love left for Chavez in the international media, although it did not play well in Caracas Chronicles.

In March we continued to see Chavez everywhere, and comparisons were a dime a dozen, whether with Idi Amin Dada or with Ann Coulter. It did give us the chance to include a nifty spoof on Chavez's rants done, surprisingly, by The Nation.


Perhaps the Amin analogy was the final push Quico needed to get a gig posting over at Noticiero Digital, showing once again that radicalism can be fruitful once in a while.

The end of the month proved low on inspiration. The country seemed on the verge of something, yet Chavismo's looming radicalization did not hit us yet. Quico continued musing about the change in our currency, but he also ventured into translating Venezuelan humour and pondering the imminent firing of Supreme Tribunal magistrate Cabrera, something that did not end in anything with Cabrera still safely in his position.

Katy, in the meantime, came back to remind people that you need only to turn to the Sucesos pages to find the inspiration needed, and post on the tragedy playing out in Venezuela's streets. Quico found his inspiration in comparing Venezuela's institutional decay to Italy or Washington.



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April
In April, we began
heatedly debating the issues that would come up in the next few months. Katy made the case against term limits, saying that the revolution should run its course and live in the disasters it has created. Quico pitched in on this post, making sure people understood that no, if Venezuela had no term limits, it would not resemble France nor Britain.

We highlighted particularly bonehead chavista measures, such as Chavez's whiplash inducing about-face on ethanol, and the ban on the sale of alcohol during Semana Santa (Easter week). Was this the decision that showed the government had started losing touch? It's hard to say.

In April we also took digs at one of CC's favorite punching bags, the Comando Nacional de la Resistencia and its spokesman, Antonio Ledezma. It was a year of follies for these guys. They continually introduced petitions into the Supreme Tribunal while denouncing the Tribunal's illegitimacy. They maintained a rigid stance against the vote on December, only to do an abrupt about-face in calling for the vote two days before the election that left even Hermann Escarrá scurrying for the nearest exit. Their credibility is in shatters, which can only mean we will continue seeing these guys give us their wise opinions on Globovisión every two days or so.

In April we also looked back, once again, at the events of April 2002, with Quico giving us a reprisal of his masterful post on the subject, as well as a fresh new take on Chavez's own. We also reminded readers that the causes of 2002 are still very much present. Quico took the time to exchange impressions of April 11th with Greg Wilpert, chavista apologist par excellence.

Yet April was not all about remembrance. We still found the time to post about measles, the excellent website Venezuela Real, and the now-forgotten scandal of a taped conversation between the head of VTV and the head of Venevisión.

We admired a journal article by Corrales and Penfold, took shots at Chavez's ideas for a barter economy and Barreto's blimps (whatever happened to those?), and compared Chávez to Putin, once again.

Yet the highlight of the month was a short and sweet post by Quico on Venezuela's two Constitutions. Even now it helps shape
our understanding of what the whole idea behind the failed Reform proposals was. We ended the month by updating our Reader's Guide on Venezuela.



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May
The month was, of course, dominated by the news of RCTV's imminent closure. As the date approached, we began discussing the PR war being staged. Quico mused about the international implications of the shutdown, the unfairness of singling out RCTV, chavismo's international spinning machine, international condemnation of the closure, and rhetorical U-turns international apologists of chavismo had to engage in to justify this decision. Katy pitched in with a post on Human Rights Watch's position on the closure.

As the date of the closure approached, the streets got in on the action and we witnessed the rebirth of the student movement, which has quickly established itself as a force to be reckoned with. We had mixed feelings about the RCTV closure: while we condemned it, we had no love for RCTV's extreme editorial line. Quico wrote a great post on the right to propagandize. Katy discussed how RCTV fit into the bigger picture of Chavez's ultimate goal: ensuring indefinite reelection. Little did we know it would come back to haunt him.

We worried about the students and about further repression, while we decided to turn the comments section back on for a while. The comparisons to the student movement of 1928 were apparent from the start.



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June
June started with Chávez complaining about the massive international conspiracy to make it look like shutting down a dissident TV channel is bad for freedom of speech somehow, and then denouncing the 1999 constitution's fundamental principles. Days later, he invoked Italian Marxist theorist Antonio Gramsci to defend his position on RCTV, prompting Quico to rant at length.

Foreshadowing the effect the RCTV shutdown would have on Chavismo's electoral viability, the following week the government got its ass kicked in a mayoral by election in Catatumbo, in southern Zulia state.

Katy immensely enjoyed a little gotcha post when Chávez messed up and used the black market exchange rate on Aló, Presidente, and then added a schadenfreundish post on the defenestration of Tobías Nóbrega. Her mixed feelings on the Student Movement and its lionization were clear from the start.

Quico took a break from bashing the private media and bashed the public media for a change.

Katy traveled to Caracas in June and wrote a genuinely inspired first person account of the simmering discontent already brewing in chavista ranks after she infiltrated a progovernment rally. One of the year's highlights.

Quico closed out the month by posting his 2003 documentary about polarization in the countyside, Law of the Land, alongside two detailed posts about the movie. Like the movie, the essays develop the themes lawlessness and the inability to make written rules operative that come back again and again in his writing.





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July
Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas acknowledged the government would miss it's 12% inflation target for the year (the final figure was double that) and announced a fiscal retrenchment plan that doesn't seem to have been implemented.

Still processing her trip, Katy wrote about the generalized state of breakdown she encountered due to the state's general inability to make sensible policy.

Quico posted a fascinating if somewhat PSFish Dutch public Television documentary on the barrios called Caracas: The Informal City.

Quico then wrote a detailed set of essays series on the petrostate's inability to get paper based governance right, on its general dysfunction, and on the way to fix it, suggesting all oil revenues be shared out to Venezuelans through a tax credit scheme.

Those three were awfully serious, so then he lightened it up a bit, making fun of PDVSA's diversification plans.

Quico then found out what 206 million bucks looks like in $100 bills and was totally floored. He proposed the Mexican Drug Cash Pile as a new unit of fiscal measurement.

Katy noticed the first signs that the government realized its constitutional reform proposal might not be so easy to pass, as they started to object to the term "indefinite re election."


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August
Early on we saw signs of chavismo's nervousness regarding its Constitutional Reform proposal. In early August we learned that since indefinite re-election was bombing in the polls, chavismo would include the misiones in the proposal. Yet, through it all, chavismo kept showing that what it really was about was controlling all aspects of society, including labor unions.

August also marked the beginning of a truly awful semester for Chavez in the international sphere. Forget all the recent spats with Spain, Chile or Colombia: it all started with Chávez lashing out when the Brazilian and Paraguayan parliament showed signs they would not just rubber-stamp Venezuela's entry into Mercosur. In August, in a fit of narcissistic rage, Chávez basically gave Mercosur an ultimatum (one that he seems to have forgotten about), and immediately went ballistic on anyone who dared call his ultimatum, ummmm...an ultimatum.

This trend continued with Maletagate, a mega-scandal that just won't go away, seriously implicating the Venezuelan and Argentinian government in some decidely gangster-like shenannigans. Quico lamented how our press is not doing its job, and how now we must resort to borrowing scandals from abroad.

In the meantime, Katy wrote a lovely, lyrical, but deeply upsetting post on a scandal of a diferent type: how the picture-perfect town of San Juan de las Galdonas has sold itself out to gasoline smuggling.

The unveiling of the Constitutional Reform package was only hours away, and polls began to show up saying the government was in some trouble. Quico really nailed the government's predicament when he prophetically wrote:
Chávez has a mountain to climb to win over public opinion here. If he can't turn these numbers around, the scale of the cheating it would take for him to claim victory would simply be unsustainable.
Caracas Chronicles was thus one of the rare media outlets giving the opposition a chance on this one right from the beginning. In the spirit of the holidays, we think a smug, self-congratulatory pat in the back is in order.

Then, the Reform itself was unveiled, and our collective jaw hit the floor at the sheer lunacy of some of the proposals. While we laughed at the plan to rename Caracas the Queen of Guaraira Repano, we were simply astounded by the fact that the whole thing made no sense. One of Quico's best lines of the year came in this post, in which he wrote:
Suddenly, it all makes sense! The reason the text looks like it was written by a lunatic at three in the morning is that it was written by a lunatic at three in the morning!

It's no joke, folks...it's not an exaggeration at all. I really think he wrote it - or at least big chunks of it - by himself. The guy literally pulled an all-nighter the night before it was due. In fact, he told us so!
The Reform served as fodder for several posts that month. While Quico talked about a few articles Chavez missed in his rush to push through the reform, we were disheartened at the level of discussion from chavistas such as Diosdado Cabello or Carlos Escarra and from the opposition. Mostly, Quico couldn't figure out why they were selling us a reform full of stuff they were already doing:
These days, chavista discourse is full of grand declarations about the absolute necessity of constitutional reform to enable the state to do stuff that filled yesterday's newspapers. In a way, Chavismo is trying to sell us the Constitutional Reform as a necessary precondition for the status quo.
But it wasn't all about the reform. We discused the government's bonehead plan to change the country's time zone, mess around with private health care and even engage in some embassy re-decorating in Lima:





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September
Quico began the autumn with
a look back at the Chávez of September 2004, the one who stopped an indefinite re-election proposal in its tracks with these words: “I am neither a caudillo, nor indispensable.” El Presidente’s current histrionics in response to arguments he himself had once made, a scant three years earlier, are not simply a matter of political tactics, Quico writes, but also clear evidence of mental , um, issues:

He hints darkly about their allegiance to foreign powers, blusters at length without addressing the substance of their points, all without ever betraying the slightest whiff of understanding, the most oblique hint of self-awareness about the scale of the rhetorical U-turn involved.

But if Chávez himself has seen the light, the people of Venezuela have not – Quico unveils his first poll chart of the referendum season, showing early evidence that indefinite re-election is going to be a tough sell.

But in what will become an enduring lament from the Caracas Chronicles bloggers, Quico wonders whether another oppo harakiri is in the making – early Hinterlaces tracking numbers point to substantial abstention among those opposing the reforms. “Abstentionism isn't politics,” he writes, with no small amount of frustration, “it's a vocación de martir...”.

Quico also lures us on a trip to the dark side, showcasing Chris Kraul’s LA Times article on tomb-raiding, black magic and macabre burial rituals in some Venezuelan cemeteries. The piece was not without reference to politics, either – a priest from El Hatillo accused Chávez of promoting Santeria in order to diminish the power of the Catholic Church. (Hat tip to Kraul – this definitely does not qualify as follow-the-pack journalism).

While work and travel overwhelmed Katy and Quico in mid-September, loyal readers and PSFs were undeterred, and with Mommy and Daddy away, a raucous debate ensued in the comments section, with, it must be admitted, some highly creative epithets flung across cyberspace.

On the 20th, Caracas Chronicles' fifth anniversary came and went...but none of us actually noticed.

Katy had left us to our own devices because she was doing some family bonding in Panama, where her Venezuelan relatives were free to spend their Mision Cadivi dollars…she does the math, and figures Uncle Hugo’s subsidies to her relatives could feed a family of twelve for a year in Venezuela. What a revolution!


Meanwhile, on another continent, Quico had an adventure of a different sort -- a rendezvous in Paris with J.M. Briceño Guerrero, Venezuela’s most revered classicist, and author of The Labyrinth of the Three Minotaurs, a book that has long held a special place in Quico’s heart.

Quico writes movingly of the encounter – the post is a tour de force, moving smoothly from the great gentleman’s childhood Palmarito memories to his late-in-life taking up of Chinese – the better to read the Tang Dynasty poets -- and stopping in between to measure his love for teaching and his distaste for shallow political debate. It’s a post of both charm and depth, well worth re-visiting. It inspired oohs and ahs from readers, and perhaps not a small amount of self-reflection, given JMBG’s admonition to go beyond the day’s headlines, look deeper, think independently.


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October
October was a strange month. While the country was two months away from an election with enormous implications, CC was in a funk. Katy, Quico and Lucia were all extremely busy, so posting was light, but when it happened, it was also Hamlet-esque.

Katy tried to give a general sense of what the status of the fight was. She pointed out what each opposition party's main points were, listlessly underestimating the strength of the student movement and having no idea that the future oppposition would include people like Raul Baduel or Ismael García.

Quico set the tone for the ensuing debate by throwing the towel on the whole abstention vs. participation debate. It was the beginning of a long series of exchanges between the bloggers and between them and some of our readers. Much as we tried, our dread for the debate itself ended up dragging us into it.

Katy responded by saying that she and Quico agreed. Quico retorted that, na-ha, they weren't talking about the same thing.

It was the first of a series of posts lamenting the state of the public discourse. Quico began quoting political scientists like Jeffrey Friedman and Phillip Converse in search of some insight. He even threw in a Japanese lesson, leaving many of our readers befuddled.

Katy and the New York Times came to the rescue, the former with a post on the dangers of the media's manipulation of the student movement, and the latter with a brilliant exposè of the Petrostate in the Times Sunday Magazine. As the country was heating up, we began getting our groove back.

As October drew to a close, Quico was still mired in a navel gazing funk and sadistically taking it out on readers through a series of incomprehensible posts. Katy was still in "maybe eternal re election is not so bad" sour grapes land. Only Lucia had caught on that the month ahead was liable to bring some surprises.

The funny thing is that, with little over a month to go before the referendum, we really weren't in election mode at all: Katy was still ranting about her favorite hobby horse ("Misión Cadivi") and Quico didn't even attempt to be topical.


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November
November was the month when everything changed...not that that was apparent early in the month.

It started w
ith Katy confirming what we'd suspected all along: she's a party girl in a party world. Her insider's look at Primero Justicia's "ideological congress" (basically their party conference) nicely balanced the party's diversity and vitality with a frank avowal of a degree of ramshackle disorganization. She followed her party post up with another critical look at the overblown expectations being built around the Student Movement.

The first inkling we had that the government's constitutional reform proposal could run into serious difficulty came on the 5th, when former Defense Minister and chavista folk hero Raul Baduel stunned the entire country by coming out strongly for a No vote.

The next day Lucia, who had been reading the blog for years and sending us some really juicy scoops for a long time, finally got itchy fingers and wrote her first post, pleading with abstentionists to turn out and vote. She followed it up with a chilling "post from the future" illustrating how the international press would cover the story if the opposition shot itself on the foot again through abstentionism.

On the ground, the students' No campaign was catching on and generating a terrifying chavista backlash.

But Katy's reaction took comeflorismo to a whole new level. Not that her peace, love and understanding shtick could withstand its first encounter with Iris Varela on full rant mode.

Even at this late stage, with a tightening race and voting only a couple of weeks ago, Quico refused to drop the whole German philosophical thing. He noticed the blog's hit count collapsed every time he started writing that stuff, and vowed to try to keep within limits.

Katy brought things back to earth with a nicely pictorial, maracucho-nostalgic post about milk shortages. On the 16th, she noted with some relief that CNE's "indelible ink" (the stuff you stain your little finger with on election day so you can't vote twice) had been audited and approved by opposition witnesses, blowing a large hole in one one of the key abstentionist arguments.

On the 19th, Lucia had her first proper post as a member of the team...henceforth, she would stop being obnoxiously right all the time in the comments section and start doing so on the main page. She addressed the weird disconnect between the Sí's rapidly falling standing in the polls and international journalists' ongoing tendency to portray a government win as a foregone conclusion. Later that week she posted some notes on Chávez's
deeply dishonest campaign strategy.

On the 23rd, a mere nine days before the vote, Quico finally got the message and posted on the now very real chance the No would win, because Comando Zamora was fighting the last war.

During the week before the constitutional reform referendum, the blog went hyperactive. We wrote Scenarios on what a Sí win would mean, what a No win would mean, and what a fraudulent Sí win would mean. Quico waded into the neverending controversy, trying to explain why CNE would not be able to cheat without it being really obvious.

And, as you've come to expect, we posted lots and lots and lots and lots and lots of polls, most of them showing a more comfortable No win if turnout was high, and a very tight race if it was low. Seriously, we posted a lot of polls.

If we had to pick just a couple of polling slides that "tell the story of the referendum", we'd go for these two. First, Datanalisis showed that about half the people who self identified as chavistas ahead of the 2006 presidential election were self identifying as NiNis ahead of the 2007 referendum:


...which is facinating, when you think about it, because it maps directly onto the drop in the government's vote from 2006 to 2007.

And then this slide by Consultores 21, who clearly called the election, and who knew all along that low turnout meant a tight race:

Somewhere in there Iris Varela flipped out yet again, Comando Nacional de la Resistencia were forced to come out of their abstentionist bunker with their hands in the air, and Jens Erik Gould dissected chavismo's appalling financial opacity.

Basically, a lot happened in November.


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December
The weight anticipation had made us all slightly loopy by the time December rolled around. On the day before the referendum, we linked to the sheerly incongruous sight of General Baduel publishing an anti-Chavez rant on the pages of the NYTimes. We posted one last poll, and asked readers to tell us how they thought the next day's referendum would turn out.

Only amieres and 'marc in calgary' guessed right: good going, you two!

Votin' day was sheer hell on the nerves. As usual, the blog's hit count went through the roof, as gossip seekers from all over the world went looking for information online. There was the usual mini-storm of alarming, over the top rumors, which we didn't post, and an antsy, too long wait for an official result.

At 9:53 p.m. Caracas time, we called the result on the basis of multiple reports from within CNE.
The comments section went berserk, with 418 people all posting at the same time at one point. Katy and Quico realized they're both in their 30s, and they'd never before actually been on the winning side in a national vote. By the time Tibisay Lucena showed up on TV to announce what we already knew, readers were pretty drunk.

For the record, Caracas Chronicles was 2 hours and 31 minutes faster than CNE...and we didn't even cost the Venezuelan treasury $100,000,000 like those guys did. Admittedly, we were almost 3 and a half hours slower than Reuters. But then, we did get the result right the first time.

For me, the Photo of the Year was taken that night, at the ca
nceled chavista victory party in front of Miraflores Palace, by a photographer for El Mundo:

The next day, battling a fierce hangover, Quico raised questions about CNE's slow announcement, and the narrow margin. Rumors were beginning to go around about Chávez "negotiating the margin" of the No's win, and we demanded to see the actas.

Katy and Quico debated what the opposition should do next, with Quico wanting the opposition to spin this as a victory for the constitution chavistas wrote, and Katy urging the opposition to stand up and claim its win. We also examined Chávez's election night concession speech, noting that while his tone of voice had been conciliatory, his message hadn't. And we got a big kick out of Heinz Dieterich's half sensible, half deranged, half incendiary postmortem.

CNE kept on rationing out results information with an eyedropper, to Quico's enormous annoyance. Soon, reader amieres figured out a way to extract the underlying databases from CNE's results website, setting off a brief flurry of statistical analysis. The results stunned us, suggesting the real advantage for the No side will have been narrower than CNE announced on voting night, not wider as everyone in the opposition figured. However, CNE's second results bulletin raised more questions than it answered, and then those guys went on christmas vacation before publishing complete results. To our disappointment, the opposition parties weren't organized enough to provide precise answers.

For his part, Chávez was able to sustain his "gracious loser" shtick for less than 72 hours. From the start, he'd said he intended to press forward with his reforms regardless, making it sort of quizzical why he bothered with a referendum in the first place. By Wednesday afternoon, the guy's problem with narcissistic rage was shining through in all its splendor. He stormed an Armed Forces' press conference and called the opposition's a "shit victory," prompting Escualidus Arrechus to coin the pun of the year: The shit hits the F.A.N. The next day, he was in full loony ranting mode again, blaming the loss on his ungrateful supporters. Needless to say, we found the spectacle immensely enjoyable.

We were just about ready to close the year with thoughts on the opposition's problem with rurality, calls for better organization of election monitoring from the oppo parties, and ruminations on Belorussian cuisine. But then maletagate resurfaced again, prompting Quico to one last angry tirade about our totally useless contralor.


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Well, that's about as much blogging as you're going to get out of us this year! It was great fun...thank you all for reading.

Merry Christmas, everyone...see you again in the new year!