The President of the National Electoral Board, Jorge Rodriguez, announced at 4:15 p.m. today the preliminary results "which show a clear tendency" on the signature verification process to convene a vote to recall the president. He said there are 2,451,821 valid signatures to demand a recall, and 2,436,083 were required.
If this is so, there has to be a referendum: article 21 of the rules explicitly rule out any further verifications after this point. Chavez will give a speech within the next hour - think of it as a campaign launch.