October 13, 2006

Thinking through a Rosales presidency

Lost in all the campaign horse-race excitement is a simple question: if he did manage to beat Chavez, what would a Manuel Rosales presidency actually be like? How does the guy go about governing in an institutional environment dominated entirely by chavista appointees? Is he really up to it?

The scenarios are pretty dire.
  • How does Rosales negotiate a budget with a 100% chavista National Assembly?
  • What happens when the chavista-controlled Supreme Tribunal declares Mi Negra unconstitutional?
  • How does he deal with the barrage of investigations from a Chavez controlled Comptrollership and Prosecutor General?
  • How does he deal with the 22 chavista state governors?
  • How does he take the 30,000 Kalashnikovs out of the hands of the Cuban trained Frente Francisco de Miranda?
  • What does he do with the tens of thousands of Cuban doctors, and the hundreds (or thousands) of Cuban security agents in the country?
  • Last but not least, how does he handle Leader of the Opposition Hugo Chavez?
The short answer is that he will be forced to call a new Constituent Assembly...but then, what happens if he loses the elections to appoint its members?

Folks, even if Rosales wins, it's not the end. It's merely the beginning.