The total number of registered voters is roughly 12 million. Due to its importance we can assume the RR will motivate a high voter turnout of maybe 65%. So we are talking about a net voting universe of roughly 7,800,000 voters.
According to data from INE, the distribution of population according to social classes for 2002 is: Alta: 8.5%, Media: 15.8%, Baja: 45.4%, Muy Baja: 30.7%. This would indicate, assuming the abstention numbers remain constant throughout social classes (probably not true but good enough for this simple analysis), that there will be 663,000 voters from the highest social class, 1,232,400 voters from the middle class, 3,541,200 voters from the lower class, and 2,394,600 voters from the very low social class. Assuming the Yes vote is 80% for the highest class, 60% for the middle class, 40% for the lower class, and 30% for the very low social class, the total number of Yes votes would tally 530,400 from the highest social class, 739,440 from the middle class, 1,416,480 from the low social class and 718,380 from the very low class for a grand total of 3,404,700 votes.
Not enough to end Chavez's presidency!
Registered Voters % Voting Universe Voting
12,000,000 65.00% 7,800,000
Class % of Population Voters Si Vote Total Votes
alta 8.50% 663,000 80% 530,400
media 15.80% 1,232,400 60% 739,440
baja 45.40% 3,541,200 40% 1,416,480
muy baja 30.70% 2,394,600 30% 718,380
3,404,700
THIS IS GUSTAVO'S ANALYSIS. HE IS A VERY OPTIMISTIC GUY, BUT HE HAS AN ANALYTICAL MIND, USED TO SEE REALITY, AS HE WORKS AS A PROJECT MANAGER. I'M POSTING HIS VIEWS TO KEEP THE BALL ROLLING. THAT MEANS, ACTUALLY, THAT I HOPE HIS ANALYSIS ISN'T RIGHT, AND THAT I'M NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR HIS VIEWS...
(Just a note: I'll never make it as a blogger. I don't know how to make the numbers appear in order).
